Is the ETH Downtrend Ended? Why Ether’s Next Stop Could Be $1,500

Ether (ETH) fell below $1,900 in Asian trading hours on Tuesday, extending its 30-day loss to 38% as President Donald Trump's tariffs soured investor sentiment.

Several market and technical indicators suggest that the ETH price may fall before the bulls attempt any recovery.

Main Receptors:

Ether trades below realized value, which historically has continued levels of depression.

The price of ETH may not get lower until the 50-week moving average crosses below the 100-week average.

Coinbase Premium at 3.5-Year Low and Continued ETF Flow Reflects Strong Selling by US Traders

Ether falls below the perceived value

The past month has seen Ether's 38% decline below key support levels, including its price.

This is an onchain metric that calculates the market value based on the last time ETH was taken.

Ether's market price of $1,830 is also currently below the average cost base of $2,380, which is historically a bearish sign.

RELATED: Ethereum Foundation Begins Saving ETH As Client Diversity Concerns Continue

When the realized value is higher than the spot value, it often acts as a hedge, leaving owners with a large amount underwater.

In these circumstances, panic selling becomes more likely given the current rate-based fear and uncertainty in the cryptocurrency market.

Additionally, drops below perceived value have historically marked the full-cap level at which investors lose confidence and start selling heavily.

In June 2022, the Ether spot price fell below the realized price, which was preceded by a 45% drop in the ETH price following the Terra Luna market crash. A similar scenario was seen in August 2018 before Ether fell 77%.

The current setup also resembles previous setups, putting the ETH price at risk of a deep correction.

ETH price charts still favor bears

History shows that ETH does not bottom until the 50-week exponential moving average (EMA) crosses below the 100-week EMA. This type of cross marked the end of every major bear market, including in 2022 and 2018, as shown in the chart below.

Currently at $3,017, the 50-week EMA is above the 100-week EMA ($2,920), suggesting that the ETH/USD pair may fall further until these trend lines signal a potential downside.

Traders saw a bearish flag pattern on the daily price chart after key support levels were lost.

Ether's “bear flag is playing out right now,” trader BitBull said in a Monday X post.

The ultimate target is $1,400-$1,500.

As reported by Cointelegraph, the ETH/USD pair may drop to $1,100 due to reduced network activity and reduced institutional interest.

Ether Coinbase premium will return to 2022 levels

The Ethereum Coinbase Premium Index, which tracks the price difference between ETH between Coinbase and Binance, fell to -0.11 on February 6th before recovering to a current value of -0.09.

A very negative premium suggests that the majority of sales will come from the US, particularly from retailers. The last period of the 30-day SMA that turned negative was during the depth of the 2022 bear market.

Extreme negative premiums often coincide with capital levels, as seen in 2022. As long as US investors sell at a discount, the downside will continue.

In addition, institutional demand also eased sharply, with US-based space Ethereum ETFs recording five consecutive weeks of outflows, the longest since April 2025.

Investors have withdrawn nearly $1.3 billion from these investment products over the period, with $123 million withdrawn last week, according to Soso Value data.

Therefore, institutions are currently sellers, with more than $36.5 million withdrawn from international Ethereum investment products last week, adding to Ether's upside.