Is This Bitcoin Bull Market Early? Here is what the information says about making the maximum time

Crypto investors have been extremely bullish on Bitcoin this year, surging 50% in less than two months after the US Bitcoin Spot ETF was approved in January.

However, those profits can be a source of uncertainty – especially for traders. Until this week, Bitcoin had never broken its previous bull market high until several months after the once-in-four-year “halving” event.

Now that it's done ahead of schedule, could the property's long four-year market cycle be completely out of whack?

“So far the four-year cycle seems to be intact,” Julio Moreno, head of research at CryptoQuant, told Decrypt. The analyst pointed out that the price of Bitcoin is still going along with the cycle as it holds the low of $15,500 in November 2022.

The on-chain analytics platform uses the Bitcoin MVRV ratio as an effective measure to measure Bitcoin bull and bear markets. The ratio compares Bitcoin's market value to its “subjective cap”—the total value of the coins that were last traded.

The higher the ratio, the more profit Bitcoin investors are sitting on, and the more incentive they have to start selling their coins – possibly marking the peak of a bull market.

“The MVRV ratio still hasn't crossed the 3.7 thresholds that indicate a cyclical peak,” CryptoQuant said.

According to Moreno, valuation metrics show that the bull market will officially begin in January 2023, with a real price move. A year later, strong demand for Bitcoin drove it to record highs, largely in part due to demand for ETFs.

“We divide the market cycle into stages: extreme bear, bear, early bull, bull and overheated bull,” Moreno explained. “Now, we stay in the bull phase.”

Glassnode, an on-chain analytics provider, has several metrics for measuring cycle extremes. One of these is MVRV, while others include the rate at which investors are HODLing and how much profit is being taken by investors relative to losses (also known as the cost output profit ratio or SOPR).

As of March 6, the 90-day moving average for SOPR stood at 1.03—a high not seen since early May 2021.

However, lead Glassnode analyst James Check remains extremely bullish on Bitcoin as it still has a lot of room to grow.

“I'd be very surprised if we didn't break $250,000 this cycle. The structure I'm seeing is very, very strong,” he said in an interview on Thursday.

Edited by Ryan Ozawa.