Is this the end? GBTC is slowly flowing directly for the second day
Outflows from the grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) have slowed for the second day in a row – raising a glimmer of hope that the multi-billion dollar Bitcoin (BTC) dump may soon end.
According to BitMEX research data, GBTC outflows were $429 million on January 24 – the smallest daily inflow since Greyscale's spot Bitcoin ETF launched on January 11, and a 33% slowdown on January 22 compared to the start of the week.
Bitcoin Spot ETF Flow – After 9 days
Here is the interim chart. On day 9 so far only GBTC, Bitwise, Ark and Franklin.
Day 9:
GBTC -$429.3mArk +$24.9mBitwise +$20mFranklin +$1.2m
Waiting for others. Looks like another net out day. pic.twitter.com/E7s3YjyatD
— BitMEX Research (@BitMEXResearch) January 25, 2024
Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas said in a Jan. 25 X post that GBTC flows are “trending down,” but “it's still a pretty big number.” In earlier writings, Balchunas concluded that there are still “too many unknowns” to know when the GBTC “mass exodus” will stop.
GBTC has bled 106,092 BTC worth about $4.4 billion in nine trading days.
$GBTC spend was only ‘425m' today, the lowest since the first day and seems to be falling. That is still a very large number, he said. Source: Bloomberg Terminal
— Eric Balchunas (@EricBalchunas) January 25, 2024
A slowdown in daily outflows does not mean that the GBTC “bleeding” has ended or is slowing down. Balchunas previously estimated that GBTC would lose 25 percent of its stake before the end of the withdrawal.
GBTC's outflow data can be misinterpreted, Arkham said.
Blockchain monitoring firm Arkham Intelligence warned that GBTC transaction data displayed on the platform could be misinterpreted at first glance.
Due to its blockchain's input-output structure, the output of a Bitcoin transaction is often distributed across multiple addresses.
GBTC wallets are frequently sent to multiple addresses, often the Coinbase Prime deposit and a new GBTC custody address. This means some… pic.twitter.com/Oml9IhLDMp
— Arkham (@ArkhamIntel) January 24, 2024
In a January 24 X post, Arkham explained that the GBTC outflow data displayed on its platform is split between Coinbase Prime and new GBTC custody addresses — meaning not all BTC is withdrawn from Grayscale's Bitcoin Trust.
Related: Bitwise Releases Wallet Addresses for Bitcoin ETF Holdings
“Due to the blockchain's input-output structure, the output of a bitcoin transaction is often split across multiple addresses.”
“GBTC security bags often send to multiple addresses […] This means that some BTC sent in a transaction may go to a different address than the main recipient shown in the transaction panel,” he explained.
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