Kalshi founder outlines next steps for ‘marketed Iranian leader’
Tarek Mansour, founder of the prediction market Kalshi, provided an update following the platform's decision to reject some of the positions opened after the death of Iran's Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
“We don't list markets that are directly linked to death. When there are markets where the potential consequences include death, we design the rules so people don't survive. That's what we've done here,” Mansour said in a post on X.
Iranian state media reported the death early in the morning, following strikes by Israel and the United States a day earlier.
Kalshi is making all payments from the “Ali Khamenei as Supreme Leader” market and will pay traders who have vacancies before Khamenei's death “according to the last price sold before his death,” Mansoor said.
Additionally, users who opened positions after Khamenei's death were refunded the difference between the highest price paid for entry and the final sale price.
A Kalshi spokesperson told Cointelegraph that the platform's policy of not allowing “death markets” is clear and long-standing.
The platform reiterated its policy on Saturday, and Mansour said the relative provisions of the death are clearly set out in the market rules. But the decision sparked condemnation from online users, who accused the platform of undermining users' profits.
Related: Kalshi suspends US politician for insider trading violation
In the midst of geopolitical tensions, suspicions of insider trading on construction market platforms are increasing
In February, six traders at rival prediction market Polymarket placed a $1 million bet that the US would launch a strike against Iran before the end of the month.
All six wallets were created in February, specifically betting on markets linked to the attack on Iran, and some of the positions were filled hours before the first explosions were heard in the capital, Tehran, according to Bloomberg.
The trading strategies have raised suspicions of insider trading among onchain investigators and analysts.
In January, US President Donald Trump announced that US law enforcement had arrested a person who leaked information related to the invasion and capture of former Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro.
The comments fueled speculation by onchain analytics platform Lookonchain that it may have been linked to a winning bet on Polymarket shortly before the US invasion of Caracas.
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