Kalshi selection betting contracts are multiplied after the court winner
Prediction marketplace Kalshi has secured more than a dozen event contracts related to U.S. political outcomes since a landmark court battle in September, according to regulatory filings reviewed by Cointelegraph.
The event's contracts – winner-take-all financial derivatives known as binary options – are the first in the US to allow traders to bet on election outcomes.
They cover everything from November's US presidential election to Senate races, cabinet appointments and the possible resignation of New York City Mayor Eric Adams.
From October 16, Kalshi Main Market – “Who Will Win the Presidential Election?” – $14 million in total bet volume since listing on October 7, according to Kalshi's website.
Kalshi Event Contracts. Source: Commodity Futures Trading Commission
RELATED: Kalshi's US election bet live after court win
Kalshi, a US-regulated exchange, is still behind Polymarket, a decentralized prediction marketplace on the Polygon network.
According to its website, Polymarket handled about $2 billion in bets related to the US presidential race.
In the year Launched in 2020, Polymarket became famous as an unlicensed place to bet on the 2024 US election results.
In the year In November 2023, Kalshi sued the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), the US derivatives regulator, for trying to block the exchange from listing political event contracts.
Kalshi prevailed in the September court decision and again on Oct. 2, when a federal appeals court upheld Kalshi's September victory.
The CFTC said election prediction markets like Kalshi's risk the accuracy of polls, but industry analysts say they often capture public sentiment more accurately than polls.
Bloomberg is adding election odds data from Polymarket. Source: Bloomberg
“[E]Harry Crane, a professor of statistics at Rutgers University, said in an August opinion letter to the CFTC that the commission has no evidence of significant manipulation or expansion for any nefarious purposes. .
In August, Bloomberg LP, a financial information and news service, added Polymarket's polling data to its terminal.
Bloomberg Terminal is the world's most popular institutional financial information platform. It controls one-third of the market for financial information services, according to the Wall Street Prep.
On October 16, Kalshi increased the odds of Republican candidate Donald Trump winning the election to 55%, and Democratic challenger Kamala Harris to 45%.
Polymarket punters are even more bullish on Trump, giving the odds to Harris at 58% and less at 41%.
Polymarket also includes low-probability results, such as a third-party candidate winning in November.
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