Key Bitcoin price levels seen when the BTC bear market begins

Bitcoin (BTC)'s drop below $90,000 has pushed BTC profitability metrics into negative territory, signaling BTC's entry into a bear market, according to a new study.

Data from TradingView shows that Bitcoin's price action has established a new range on lower time frames and market watchers are eyeing key support levels below.

Main Receptors:

Bitcoin's net profit/loss indicates that the market is entering a macro recession.

The buyer congestion zone between $80,000 and $84,000 remains the main support for BTC for now.

Bitcoin's profitability cycle turns negative

In Thursday's edition of its regular newsletter, the Weekly Crypto Report, onchain data provider CryptoQuant said Bitcoin holders are moving from booking losses to profits for the first time in more than two years.

Net profit/loss, which captures the total profit or loss investors lock in when they move coins on-chain, has fallen to 69,000 BTC over the past 30 days, indicating a sharp decline in market strength, he said.

Related: Bitcoin Analysts Predict ‘Prolonged Consolidation' for BTC Price

“Bitcoin holders begin to realize net losses for the first time since October 2023,” CryptoQuant analysts say.

Confirmed profit peaks from March 2024 are declining, indicating that price momentum is slowing as the bull market ends.

Meanwhile, annual net realized profits have declined significantly, falling from 4.4 million BTC in October to 2.5 million BTC, levels last seen in March 2022.

This reinforces the theory that “onchain profit volatility is now consistent with early bear market conditions,” the analysts said.

While similar onchain conditions have preceded past bear markets, analysts caution that only measures of realized gains have created false signals of historical consolidation levels.

This profitability closely mirrors the 2021-2022 bull-bear transition, with realized profits peaking in January 2021 and forming lower highs through 2021. They then moved to a net loss before the 2022 bear market, as shown in the chart above.

Many analysts expect 2026 to be a bear market year, and various predictions have BTC prices returning to $58,000.

“Bitcoin just flashed a bear market signal,” analyst Titan of Crypto said in a recent post on X, highlighting a bearish cross from the MACD in two months.

“Historically, similar combinations have been followed by 50% – 64% reductions.”

Next look at these Bitcoin price levels

The recent selloff has seen the BTC/USD pair down 9% from its 2026 high of $97,930.

As a result, Bitcoin has lost key support levels, including the 75th percentile cost, which is currently at $92,940.

Bitcoin “is now trading below 75% of its supply value, indicating increased supply pressure,” Glassnode said in an X newsletter article Thursday:

Until this level is restored, the risk remains high.

The price of Bitcoin “is now back on the rising trend line,” Merlijn The Trader said in Friday's analysis on X, citing support between $89,000 and $90,000.

If this level is lost, we could “revisit the regional lows” around $84,000, the trader added.

A heat map of Bitcoin's cost base distribution has seen investors gain 941,651 BTC at this level over the past six months, suggesting it is a key support level.

The next major support level is placed at around $80,000, above the 127,000 BTC bought earlier.

Many analysts agree that a weak derivatives market, selling by long-term holders, and BTC moving to exchanges could push Bitcoin's price into an extended downtrend this year.