Whether it is a long-range intercontinental ballistic missile, as first feared, or an experimental intermediate-range hypersonic missile, as it is now believed, Russia's war with Ukraine took another step on Wednesday to address the threat of nuclear proliferation.
Tuesday's missile attack on the Ukrainian city of Dnipro appeared to be in retaliation for a missile attack on Russia after the Biden administration authorized Ukraine to use a long-range US-made tactical missile system (ATACMS) against targets in Russia.
The hypersonic missile used is the first of a new weapon being developed by major powers around the world.
Increase in growth Risk Russia's “Oreshnik” (Hazel) missile is said to be equipped with a multiple independent target re-entry vehicle (MIRV) system capable of carrying multiple warheads.
How hypersonic missiles differ from ICBMs
What is the difference between supersonic missiles and ICBMs? Their flight characteristics, experts say.
While both ICBMs and hypersonic missiles reach speeds above Mach 5, hypersonic missiles are extremely evasive and can fly into the atmosphere, changing course at low altitudes mid-flight to outrun defenses.
In contrast, ICBMs follow a predictable parabolic trajectory after launch, making them much easier to track.
Russia's use of a hypersonic missile underscores the vast race to develop hypersonic technology. Currently, the US, Russia, China and North Korea are thought to have developed hypersonic missiles, although Russia appears to be the only country in the war.
On Monday, India became the latest country to enter the arms race, announcing that it had successfully test-fired what it claimed was its first hypersonic missile. However, whether the missile could be successfully loaded with other technical issues was still an open question.
Although hypersonic weapons have not yet been deployed, the US is investing heavily in its research. The Pentagon's 2025 budget includes a $6.9 billion request for hypersonic weapons, according to an August 2024 report from the Congressional Research Service.
The politics of hypersonic missiles
Russia's use of hypersonic missiles is less about terror and destruction and more about sending a message to the West, former intelligence officer Matthew Shoemaker said.
“This was more of a message to President Biden, England and France than to the Ukrainians,” Shoemaker told Decrypt. “Staying out of it is sending a message to the West.
The shoemaker, who has served with the US Defense Intelligence Agency and the US Navy, suggested that if Russia wanted to inflict serious damage on the Dnipro, it could use conventional weapons.
“Putin could have had the same effect in terms of taking out any target that he started using conventional weapons,” Shoemaker said. “And it would have done it more cheaply.”
Shoemaker also emphasized the timing of these exchanges, particularly given the political climate in the U.S., suggesting that Biden's ATACMS strike may have been intended to benefit Ukraine as President-elect Donald Trump prepares to take office.
“It's all political chess and political game play that both sides are playing,” Shoemaker said. From what I see, Biden authorized the attack so that Ukraine would have some bargaining chips when President Trump takes office.
Shoemaker explained that while the Russian missile is hypersonic, conventional intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) are also considered hypersonic with power and speeds up to 17,600 miles per hour (Mach 25).
“If this was an ICBM-type missile, the White House should have alerted the Russians in advance,” he said. “If the White House didn't realize this was going on, it would have crippled our early warning system, and it would have driven people in the Pentagon crazy that there was an unauthorized ICBM launch.”
The shoemaker's warning comes in line with the standard procedure set out in the International Code of Conduct on Ballistic Missile Proliferation, known as the Hague Code of Conduct for ICBMs.
Earlier this month, the United States announced the withdrawal to the Russian government before testing three intercontinental ballistic missiles.
While the Biden administration limited Ukraine's use of ATACMS against Russian targets, Shoemaker said Russia in 2016 After invading Ukraine in 2022, President Vladimir Putin has repeatedly threatened nuclear war without taking action.
“Putin has been using these nuclear weapons proposals for the last three years, and he's done nothing about it,” Shoemaker said. “So this is trying to send a message that it's fading again, but it's not fading.”
Edited by Sebastian Sinclair.
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