Long-term holders of Bitcoin are showing early signs of capital

Long-term holders of Bitcoin showed early capital as some six-month and longer holders sold at a loss as LTH SOPR cooled below 1.0.

Bitcoin (BTC) is showing early signs of tension among long-term holders as the LTH SOPR (Output Surplus Ratio) recently dropped below 1.0, indicating that some holders are starting to sell at a loss.

Separately, this move reflects increasing volatility in the market as BTC nears $92,000 amid mixed technical signals.

This development is significant because BTC has held more than six months of stability during historical price corrections. Temporarily selling can indicate short-term weakness or a change of heart after months of accumulation.

Early LTH Capital and market responses

A long-term holder's SOPR measures whether BTC moves on-chain at a profit or loss. A value above 1.0 indicates profitability, while a fall below 1.0 indicates that holders are selling at a loss.

According to analysis shared by market watcher Darkfost on January 13, Bitcoin's benchmark briefly slipped within this range for more than six months. This behavior, he said, is typically associated with bear market levels and suggests selling pressure from “young” long-term holders who bought in the past 9 months and are now in the red.

This growth is taking place alongside a significant reduction in responsibilities by large investors. As previously reported, addresses ranging from 1,000 to 10,000 BTC were parted with 220,000 BTC last year, the fastest decline since early 2023.

While the 30-day average LTH SOPR remains positive at 1.18, it sits well above the annual average of 2.0, indicating a decline in overall earnings.

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Separation signals and market outlook

The market now presents a conflict of narratives. The LTHS SOPR suggests tension, but other analysts are pointing to potentially constructive technical patterns. Chartist Egrag Crypto has highlighted a “hidden bullish divergence” on Bitcoin's weekly chart, where the price is making higher lows and the RSI momentum indicator is making lower lows, which could herald a trend continuation.

Additionally, the sell-side risk ratio, a measure of profit and loss being implemented, has finally returned to levels seen in October 2023, indicating that spreads are occurring with less delinquency.

Looking ahead, BTC's trajectory appears to be in a clear break from the current range. Last week, it traded around $90,000 to $92,400, showing moderate volatility. In the past 24 hours, the price has risen 1.7% to $92,200, with short-term holders approaching profitability, according to investor CW.

Meanwhile, analysts suggest that a recapture of the $92,000–$94,000 zone will trigger fresh buying, but repeated resistance tests, possibly the eighth or ninth in recent weeks, with Ted's cushion, could sap momentum.