Look at the analyst’s historical price patterns

Bitcoin is currently down 23% from its peak, with most of the losses coming in the past week.

The summer crash was tentatively predicted to be too early for the four-year cycle to peak.

On July 7, market analyst Benjamin Cowen saw the Bitcoin Bull Market Support Band (BMSB) as a key technical indicator to determine whether the asset will recover later this year.

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BMSB key indicator

The analyst compared current trends with historical patterns for 2013, 2016, 2019 and 2023, specifically examining BTC's relationship with BMSB.

He suggests that Bitcoin's performance in Q4 2024 may depend on whether the BMSB can rise above the BMSB in the coming weeks.

In the year In 2023, Bitcoin broke below the BMSB in August, remained below it for a few weeks, and then rallied strongly in Q4. However, after falling below this level, the asset continued to decline in Q4 2019.

The peak of the cycle usually comes in the fourth quarter of the year after the halving, which would be 2025, before concluding that it could still go either way:

If we follow 2019, BMSB should hold protest. If we follow 2013, 2016 and 2023, BTC should soon return above BMSB.

We've already talked a lot about the #BTC summer break idea. Now that it has happened, what comes next?

I think what happens in Q4 2024 will depend on if #BTC can bounce back above the bull market support band or hold resistance in the next few weeks.

Thread 👇

— Benjamin Cowen (@intocryptoverse) July 7, 2024

Fellow analyst ‘Rekt Capital' observed on July 8 that Bitcoin is on the verge of making its first weekly candlestick below the retracement range for the first time in more than four months.

The asset has been trading sideways in this range since late February but has now lost support and broken below it.

Analytics platform CryptoQuant advised caution after observing that long position liquidity was the largest this year.

Analysts cautioned before adding, “However, we can't simply conclude that ‘we're going to pull back now that we've had a big long run'.” This is because it took two months (from August to October 2023) before prices started to pull back.

A market breakout triggers high long liquidity.

“The recent drop in $BTC prices is devastating for long position holders. As you can see, long liquidity is the largest since last year.” – via @marketmakercopy

Link 👇 pic.twitter.com/UNhebMTND3

— CryptoQuant.com (@cryptoquant_com) July 8, 2024

BTC Price Outlook

The consensus is more subdued and looks like another dive before consolidating for a couple of months, then another move in Q4.

Bitcoin has gained $57,000 at the time of writing, following a dip to $54,320 in the Asian trading session on Monday morning.

There is support at $51,500 but an upward move needs to break the resistance levels at $60,000 for further improvement.

Additionally, this week's US inflation reports could cause more volatility in the shaky crypto markets.