Low Oil Prices Could Trigger Bitcoin Bull Run

Hayes emphasized that cheap oil could indirectly lift crypto by allowing for looser fiscal policy and credit growth.

This weekend, US President Donald Trump announced the capture of Venezuela's Nicolas Maduro and Washington's control of the country's oil industry.

The episode sparked debate in crypto circles, with BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes arguing that cheap energy and strong credit growth could set the stage for higher digital asset prices.

Trump's Venezuela Move Rattles Geopolitics, Not Crypto Markets

The news broke on Jan. 3 when U.S. officials said Maduro and his wife had been taken into custody in connection with an attack in Caracas, which Trump spoke to the media later that day.

He also said that the United States is “strongly involved” in Venezuela's oil sector, which has spread rapidly across the exchange and trade tables. Despite the shock value, Bitcoin (BTC) slipped below $91,000 to around $89,000 before stabilizing.

On January 4, as more details emerged, the largest cryptocurrency surged to a multi-week high of $92,000, up roughly $3,000 from its post-attack lows. Tokens tied to Trump-themed projects also fared better, reflecting speculative demand, as traders waited for oil futures to reopen.

On social media, Hayes weighed in, mixing satin and macro shots with long text. Theatrics aside, the bottom line was simple: American politics, especially in the run-up to the 2026 midterms and 2028 presidential races, are closely tied to economic conditions. In his view, keeping gasoline prices low is more of an issue for voters than most policy debates, and controlling Venezuela's supply would help Washington control energy costs while expanding credit elsewhere.

And this, he believes, could lead to the creation of a raw dollar, with oil prices suppressed, as there is no market force to force politicians to “stop printing money.” Hayes believes that in such an environment, the price of Bitcoin will increase directly in response to the expansion of dollar liquidity.

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“Bitcoin's rise is literally money printing,” the crypto entrepreneur said, citing the USD Liquidity Conditions Index, which they hold as evidence of this historic relationship. Contrast this with traditional financial assets such as government bonds, where energy costs are high and volatile, making them less attractive.

Why Oil and Bitcoin Are Now Tightly Linked

At the time of writing, Bitcoin is up 1% on the day, up nearly 7% over the past week, and up nearly 5% over the past month. The asset traded between $92,000 and $94,600 in the last 24 hours, showing that it remains under control despite geopolitical noise.

For now, markets are betting that U.S. controls on Venezuelan oil will increase supply rather than disrupt it. If that assumption holds, Hayes believes looser fiscal policy could continue, which would lift risk assets.

However, the tone could change quickly if unabated rate hikes and bond yields follow. Until then, Bitcoin's subdued response suggests that traders are focused on the headlines and more on the liquidity picture behind them.