Markets predict Bitcoin won’t reach $100k before June.
Bitcoin (BTC) may remain pegged below $100,000 in the first half of 2026.
Main Receptors:
The price of BTC has less than 10% chance of retaking $100,000 before February 1, according to forecast markets.
Traders predict that Bitcoin is unlikely to see $100,000 before June.
The price of Bitcoin may fall below the cost base of the strategy.
Before February, BTC has a less than 10% chance of reaching $100,000
Most traders at Polymarket and Kalshi do not expect Bitcoin to return to six-figure prices in the next seven days.
Before January 31st, Polymarket punters are putting out 6% odds to cross $100,000 before January 31st. Kalshi sets a 7% chance of BTC touching the $100,000 psychological level before the end of January.
The highest Bitcoin price for 2026 is set at $97,900, reached on January 14, and the last time the BTC/USD pair traded above $100,000 was on November 13.
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The last time BTC/USD fell below $100,000, it regained the level 93 days after a 25.5% decline.
If the same scenario occurs, the BTC price could retake $100,000 in mid-February, as shown in the chart below.
However, traders at Kalshi estimate a 65% chance that Bitcoin will break $100,000 before June, saying this could take longer.
In fact, traders on Polymarket see a 65% chance of BTC first falling to $80,000 before returning to $100,000 in 2026.
Kalshi bettors have a 54% chance that Bitcoin will fall below $70,000 this year. Also, there is a 50% chance of going above $65,000 and a 42% chance of going below $60,000.
Will BTC Price Fall Below Strategy Cost Basis?
There are increasing signs that Bitcoin is moving into a bear market, with targets as low as $58,000.
Traders at Polymarket have set a 75% chance that Bitcoin will trade below the Strategic Average BTC price in 2026, which at the time of writing was $75,979.
Despite the expected price decline, Polymarket's strategy to sell bitcoin in 2026 remains below 26%, while expectations for a typical small-cap buy will rise.
Polymarket traders still see regular strategic purchases as the highest probability of the year, with an 84% chance of holding more than $800,000 BTC by December 31.
Last week, Strategy increased its Bitcoin treasury to 709,715 BTC after buying 22,305 coins for $2.13 billion.
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