Michael B. Jordan is ahead of Timothee Chalamet in the Oscar poll
Actor Michael B. Jordan has overtaken Timothee Chalamet as the 2026 Best Actor Oscar winner on prediction market platform Polymarket.
Last week, the “Sinners” star won at the Actors' Awards, formerly known as the Screen Actors Guild Awards, or SAG.
A week out from the Academy Awards, Polymarket has a 47% chance of Jordan winning the award, with Chalamet a close second at 45%, Leonardo DiCaprio at 5%, Wagner Moura at 4% and Ethan Hawke at just 1%. Chalamet was in the lead until Saturday.
Jordan was nominated for an Oscar for his role as twin brothers Smoke and Stack Moore in the 2025 vampire horror film The Sinners. Chalamet was selected for his role in “Marty Supreme,” a fictional drama film about a table tennis player.
The Oscars will air on March 15, and the Oscars Best Actor prediction market has traded over $5.6 million on Polymarket at the time of publication.
Prediction market platforms have been prominent in the 2024 US elections and continue to gain momentum, crypto exchanges are integrating prediction markets into their platforms, and traditional financial companies are looking at prediction market-style products.
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Polymarket plans to launch its US app this year, but regulatory hurdles remain
Polymarket opened the application to select US users in December 2025, with a full US controlled rollout expected in 2026.
However, prediction market platforms continue to face scrutiny from some state-level regulators in the United States, who argue that they have the authority to regulate event contracts.
In the year In February 2026, Polymarket filed suit against the Commonwealth of Massachusetts, arguing that the state's gambling regulator has no jurisdiction over speculative markets and that that jurisdiction rests solely with the Federal Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).
The lawsuit could set a legal precedent for whether prediction markets are regulated only at the federal level, or whether control is shared between federal and state authorities.
Polymarket and Kalshi are facing increased regulatory scrutiny in the state of Nevada after a federal judge rejected arguments that the Commodity Markets Act (CEA) and the CFTC would bar state regulators from overseeing futures markets.
Both platforms are said to be exploring new fundraising rounds worth the companies around $20 billion each.
Each of the investors held preliminary discussions about raising fresh capital at higher valuations, the Wall Street Journal reported on Friday, citing people familiar with the matter. The report indicated that the negotiations remain at an early stage and may not result in agreements or confirm targets.
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