Nate Geraci predicts what will be seen in 2025
ETF Store President Nate Geraci has outlined five bold predictions for the crypto exchange-traded fund (ETF) market in 2025.
Gerasi shares his insights on X (formerly Twitter) and highlights key developments that could shape the market. Here is a list of his predictions and their implications.
Geary's Crypto ETF Forecasts As Legitimate Teams Brace For A Busy Year
Gerasi pointed out the heavy workload that awaits the EFF's legal teams in 2025. Franklin Templeton's head of digital assets commented on the comments.
“The ETF legal staff seems to be busy in the first part of the year,” Gerasi said.
As the crypto ETF space is poised for dramatic growth, Gerasi shares five developments expected to dominate financial headlines.
Launch of Combined Spot BTC and ETH ETFs
Geraci expects to launch combined space bitcoin and ethereum ETFs, a move that seems inevitable after recent regulatory proceedings. As BeInCrypto reports, the SEC (Securities and Exchange Commission) recently approved a dual Bitcoin and Ethereum ETF for Hashdex and Franklin Templeton, laying the groundwork for the launch of the financial instrument.
These combined ETFs can attract a wider range of investors by minimizing crypto exposure in one product. Looking ahead, ETF analyst Eric Balchunas predicted a January 2025 launch, adding credence to Jerasi's optimism.
“It could start in January. They are market price weighted approximately 80/20 BTC/ETH. It should be noted that Hashdex and Frankie were the first. Good for them,” Balchunas shared in December.
Spot ETH ETF Options Trading
Building on the momentum of Bitcoin spot ETF options trading, Jerasi predicts the arrival of Ethereum spot ETF options in 2025. The OCC's (Office of the Comptroller of the Currency) recent approval of Bitcoin ETF options trading has set the stage for such developments.
BlackRock's Bitcoin Options ETF performed exceptionally well, with sales exceeding $425 million on its first day of trading. Similarly, Greyscale's Bitcoin ETF options went live on November 21st. Both developments suggest that Ethereum's inclusion may only be a matter of time.
Spot BTC and ETH ETF in kind
Another milestone in Jerasi's vision is to introduce in-kind creation and redemption mechanisms for spot BTC and ETH ETFs. This follows SEC approvals in January and May for ETH ETFs to cash in on Bitcoin ETFs.
Such strategies are expected to increase liquidity and reduce costs, making ETFs more attractive to institutional investors. The debate between foresight, cash, and in-kind innovations heated up as filers campaigned for Bitcoin ETF approvals in late 2023. The US SEC has encouraged ETFs to make cash creations, as opposed to in-kind creations, to avoid the use of unregistered brokers.
“The SEC is concerned about money laundering through innovations like the bitcoin ETF, which is why they're only digging into cash innovations (which is a very closed system),” Balchunas said.
In-kind creations, however, are believed to be better for investors because of expansion and tax consequences. They are considered a better option as they offer a much cleaner structure to the issuer and the primary investors. In contrast, cash redemptions require issuers to hold cash equivalents that back ETFs.
“Have 100 ETF shares with 1 bitcoin, then the ETF provider should always have 1 bitcoin in cash. It makes things more difficult by weighting,” one user on X explained at the time.
In-kind inventions are arguably better taxed and have become more prevalent on the front end, so it's understandable why issuers may still push for this policy.
Spot ETH ETF Staking
While the US SEC disliked staking functionality for ETH ETFs under Gary Gensler's leadership, Geraci predicts that this restriction may change. Early on, major players like BlackRock and Fidelity sacrificed top talent to secure the SEC.
In contrast, European markets have embraced savings ETPs, with products such as Bitwise's Solana adding ETPs. If regulatory hurdles are lifted by pro-crypto governance, saving an ETH ETF could become a reality.
Spot SOL ETF approval
Jerasi's final forecast focuses on the approval of the Spot Solana ETF. Although the SEC recently halted Solana's ETF filings, a change in regulatory stance under the Trump administration could improve its prospects. According to industry experts, Trump's pro-crypto stance suggests a more favorable environment for new ETF products.
“The biggest Solana win coming from the new Trump presidency will be our long-awaited ETF in 2025 or 2026. Not surprisingly, the incredible VanEck team is leading the charge here with the support of 21Shares and Canary Capital,” said Dan Jalonsky. Development of Syndica news and research organization.
As the crypto ETF ecosystem continues to grow, Jerasi's predictions point to a transformative era for digital asset investing. A combination of regulatory developments, institutional demand and new product offerings will position crypto ETFs as a cornerstone of the financial ecosystem of 2025.
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