Onchain commodity trading will grow, but liquidity will still favor TradFi
Onchain product trading is proving to be more than a short-term increase, but limited liquidity continues to make the market uncompetitive with traditional venues.
The hyperliquid HIP-3 market hit a new all-time high on March 23, recording nearly $5.4 billion in durable futures across commodities and macro assets. Silver leads at $1.3 billion, followed by WTI crude oil at $1.2 billion, Brent crude at $940 million, and gold at $558 million. Equity indexes, including the Nasdaq and S&P 500, also saw significant gains.
Industry participants said the increase reflects growing demand for macro exposure on the chain. “Previously, onchain commodity futures were mostly a place for crypto-native investors, this is not the whole story,” said Iggy Ioppe, Chief Investment Officer of Teo. The real information is not just volume, when volume is revealed and who is showing up to trade.
Ioppe said on-chain oil futures markets are now processing more than $1 billion in daily volume over the weekend, with traditional exchanges offline. He attributed the transition in part to traders from traditional finance entering these markets with personal accounts. “Geopolitics will not stop on Friday afternoon, and the markets are starting to adapt to this fact,” he said.
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The weekend gap gives an edge to the on-chain markets
The ability to trade around the clock has proven to be a distinct advantage for onchain locations. With a 49-hour gap between traditional markets closing on Friday and opening on Sunday, decentralized platforms have become one of the few places where traders can react to macro developments in real time.
Although most of the money is still held in traditional markets, that volatility starts to affect how prices are formed outside of regular trading hours. “For now, onchain is the price discovery layer while the rest of the market sleeps,” Ipe said. Tradfi is still a layer of depth when size matters most.
On the CME, oil futures alone trade between 1 million and 4.5 million contracts daily, with roughly $100 billion to $300 billion traded nationally.
“Traditional venues still dominate when it comes to liquidity, execution quality and institutional-level pricing depth,” said Sergey Kunz, co-founder of 1 Inch. He pointed out that deep liquidity and tight spreads are the main obstacles. Without them, onchain markets will struggle to manage large volumes of trade without cost, limiting institutional participation.
Additional challenges include pricing reliability, market structure maturity and regulatory transparency, according to Shawn Young, principal analyst at MEXC Research.
Young said the commodity token is showing “signs of real behavioral change” but remains in its early stages, with gaps in liquidity and valuation still to be addressed.
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Onchain macro trading goes beyond commodities
Despite certain restrictions, the movement continues to build. “The broad direction is clear: Traders are becoming more comfortable with gaining macro-style exposure onchain,” Kunz said.
Gold and oil have led the current wave, but market participants expect similar patterns to emerge in other asset classes as volatility shifts.
IPE concluded that trading activity in onchain futures markets is likely to continue as confidence is building over the weekend's prices. As more traders begin to rely on these markets during business hours, the volume begins to follow. That, in turn, reinforces confidence in emerging prices, with open demand growing. Over time, this creates a self-reinforcing cycle, where high participation strengthens market loyalty and leads to greater flow.
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