Physicist Explains How His ‘Power Law’ Model Could Reach $10M in Bitcoins by 2045

Former physics professor Giovanni Santostasi has shed new light on the “power law” model to predict the price of Bitcoin, which reached $10 million per individual BTC in 2045.

A power law is a mathematical relationship in which one value is proportional to a constant power of another value. From the frequency of earthquakes to the volatility of stock market fluctuations, the law of power has been demonstrated in many natural phenomena.

Santostasi first shared the power law model in the r/Bitcoin subreddit in 2018. However, YouTube's finances saw a resurgence in January after Andre Jake mentioned it in a video to 2.3 million subscribers.

Santostasi's model predicted that Bitcoin (BTC) could reach an all-time high of $210,000 in January 2026 and then drop to $60,000.

In a March 2 interview with mathematician and Bitcoin investor Fred Krueger, Santostasi said the power law model provides a more understandable and predictable representation of Bitcoin's price action over the long term.

First cut from 90 minutes deep cut by @Giovann35084111

This is an “invisible” chart. Unknown aspects of the power law We expect the price of Bitcoin to increase by 64, not 2, in the next 15 years! pic.twitter.com/K1RiQSPt1M

— Fred Krueger (@dotkrueger) March 2, 2024

In contrast, most of the short-term Bitcoin price charts used in the mainstream media are “distorted” and show an inaccurate view of Bitcoin's price action.

“The line chart you often see on TV – what [Jim] Kramer is talking about it – it sounds like a mess.

“But when you do a y-axis log and you start to see some regularity there, it doesn't look that messy, it looks like a really nice pattern,” he explained.

According to Santostasi, unlike the now widely criticized stock-to-flow model, the power law is logarithmic rather than exponential.

This means that the value of Bitcoin should not increase over time, and significant price fluctuations – most recently witnessed between 2020 and 2023 – can still be accounted for under the model.

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In a follow-up post to X on March 3, Krueger detailed additional mathematical modeling of the power law as it applies to Bitcoin, predicting that Bitcoin will reach a value of $100,000 within the next two years.

Kruger added that if Bitcoin follows a power law model, the market cap will surpass gold by 2033, at which point Bitcoin will cost $1 million per coin.

Although Santostasi and Kruger believe in a power law model, critics say any mathematical model is prone to large errors and does not account for random events that can have a serious impact on prices.

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