Plotting Your Way to $80K — 5 Things to Know in Bitcoin This Week
Bitcoin (BTC) started the second week of April in classic bull market fashion, breaking above $70,000.
The largest cryptocurrency that spent the weekend grinding higher is reaping the gains to move to all-time highs.
Ahead of the first Wall Street open, expectations for further upside in trading circles are already realistic – can BTC price accelerate?
There is definitely a sense of déjà vu in crypto this week – the result of intense euphoria after several weeks of corrective measures.
Up and down volatility may well continue, however. Bitcoin's next block subsidy is only 10 days away from being halved, and miners are in the final stages of being rewarded for a 50% reduction per block overnight.
Networking fundamentals are key to moving forward with difficulty setting new records this week.
Elsewhere, macroeconomic sentiment was chilly as markets priced out the possibility of a quick interest rate cut from the US Federal Reserve.
Cointelegraph will examine these issues and more in its weekly release of key BTC price topics to watch in the coming days.
As the week begins, the price of BTC rises above $72,000.
Bitcoin is wasting no time trying to regain the last lost ground this week below all-time highs.
The weekly close at around $69,000 followed an unusual weekend in which BTC/USD gradually rose higher despite the absence of institutional players.
The real action came after that, but as the Asian trading session witnessed sudden volatility, Bitstamp was up $72,573 at the time of writing.
Bitcoin rose 2.5% on the day, according to data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView.
Financial analyst Tedtalksmacro summarized “Spot BTC buyers hungry” in a post on X.
The accompanying chart shows that position buyers are leading derivatives on the move.
These spot flows are key for many well-known market watchers when it comes to high momentum.
$70,000 for the famous businessman Skew hangs on with interest.
“Volatility remains modest towards the HTF picture, which means a $2K price rally is expected,” he commented on a chart showing the Bollinger Bands volatility indicator.
Closer to the band compression region if price collapses late Monday. We still need to see an increase in buying volume and spot flow this week to stay above $70k, at least in the near term.
Others that day saw a new opportunity for restoration.
For fellow crypto ed, the “very clear” pennant structure currently in place on the daily charts could return to $68,000 before a new high.
“If we pull that back and print another higher low, press for a move to $80,000,” he told X followers.
Also on the radar were two nearby “gaps” in the CME Group's Bitcoin futures market, both of which saw price move over the weekend, now at $64,000 and $68,500.
“If enough people watch them and act on them, they become self-fulfilling prophecies,” warned trader Diane CryptoTrades with a symbolic chart.
“That's when the value shifts and people stop caring is usually when it loses value.”
CPI, PPI due to key inflation
Another week of key US macroeconomic data is coming to a close, which could strengthen the Fed's view on tapering.
While Bitcoiners are mostly focused on the halving, both the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) publications for March are due in the next few days.
The US inflation narrative is currently at odds with European signals.
In recent remarks, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said officials are comfortable with the data-driven approach to rate cuts, inflation slowing and the economy coping with the impact of policy.
They have pushed back estimates of when markets will begin to close at the end of the year.
“It's all about this week's inflation data and the Fed's next steps,” business analyst Kobeisi wrote in part in a letter to X Weekly.
The latest estimates from the CME Group's FedWatch Tool show a 0.25% chance of a cut below 50% in June or July.
At the same time, Europe and the United Kingdom are looking to quickly reduce the size.
“We're not at the point where we're going to cut interest rates, but things are moving in the right direction,” Bank of England chairman Andrew Bailey said in March.
Bitcoin miners support price volatility
It's Bitcoin's halving season, and attention is increasingly focused on mining events.
They have less than two weeks until the amount of “new” bitcoins opened by each miner drops by 50% to 3.125 BTC.
Miners have increased sales through 2024, and now, analysts see a correction period ahead.
“Bitcoin mining costs will double by the end of the month, jumping from $40K to $80K for S19 XPs,” said Ki Yang Ju, CEO of on-chain analytics platform CryptoQuant. this week.
Mining costs are expected to double by 2020, but BTC price gains have reduced the impact on miners' bottom lines.
He added: “Since the May 2020 halving, mining costs have doubled, yet a parabolic bull run has begun, covering these costs and achieving profitability.”
Not having more upside now has its downsides for smaller participants who have less exposure to fluctuating market forces.
Cointelegraph reports, however, that some see revenue streams preserved after the halving thanks to the arrival of Bitcoin Ordinals and additional fees.
“In dollar terms, it's not clear that miners will be worse off after the halving, quite the opposite,” Laurent Benayoun, CEO of crypto consultant and market maker Acheron Trading, said in an interview last week.
BTC mining problem, hash rate setting new high
As such, the fundamentals of the Bitcoin network are closer to halving than ever before.
The mining problem is growing by approximately 2% on April 11 to pass 85 trillion for the first time.
Despite nearly a month of BTC price action, data from asset tracking BTC.com shows that the problem has finally eased to less than 1 percent.
The miner's hash rate tells a similar story. Raw data from MiningPoolStats now puts the total processing power to the network at 684 exahashes per second (EH/s).
The numbers show that yields from known mining pools are at their highest levels ever.
According to Cointelegraph, preparations for the halving came from various sources. Among them was the Bhutanese government's announcement of a six-fold increase in mining production by Bitcoin mining partner Bitdir Technologies ahead of the event.
Bitcoin's “diamond hands” have a lot to sell
Cointelegraph recently reported that Bitcoin long-term holders (LTHs) have become increasingly active sellers at current prices.
RELATED: Bitcoin Takes $100M+ ‘Sell-Side Days' As Bears Lose BTC Price
As LTHs used output profit ratio (SOPR) fluctuates more for them, older coins are also going on chain.
For Checkmate, a lead analyst at crypto analytics firm Glassnode, however, this is perfectly normal and should not cause sell-side pressure to overwhelm the market.
“This Bitcoin ATH break looks like every previous ATH break,” he suggested about the recent trip to $73,800.
“Long-term holders will start to cash out their coins, taking advantage of the new incoming demand and liquidity. Smart money people who buy low and sell high.”
An accompanying chart from its own statistics platform, Checkcoinchain, examined the spending habits of various coin collections over time.
So far, Checkmate argues, history is simply repeating itself. The L.T.H. Entities dump 14% of their BTC supply on hand in bull markets, and so far, less than half of that has dumped their wallets.
“Over the past two cycles, new demand for Bitcoin has been able to take this LTH sell side for 6-8 months, driving price multiples higher,” he wrote.
“If we consider a typical LTH supply discount of -14%, we're about 40% of the way through (just the ballpark).”
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and business activity involves risk, and readers should do their own research when making a decision.
