Polimarket’s presidential election prospects are crowded with bath business – report
Various studies from Chaos Labs and Inca Digital have confirmed that In the 2024 US presidential election, 30% of the activity on Polymarket is the result of a wash trade – a market manipulation technique designed to artificially inflate volume.
According to Fortune, both firms say the actual transaction volume on the forecasting platform was only $1.75 billion, compared to $2.7 billion reported by Polymarket.
Chaos Lab analysts attribute this difference in trading volume to Polymarket's fully dollar-denominated shares of stock, even though Polymarket's sales are less than $1.
Data from Dune also showed that total open interest in the platform for the 2024 presidential election was north of $150 million. This open interest figure is a separate metric from the billions of trading volume where traders sell their positions on the platform to other participants.
Polymarket Open Demand. Source: Dunn
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The fear of market manipulation gripped Polymarket
Until early October, the spread between the two United States presidential candidates was narrow and competitive. However, that began to change when Trump took a solid 10-point lead over Harris on October 12.
That lead has grown over time, with the former president currently holding a 30-point lead over Harris — unheard of in a traditional US presidential election.
As the differences between the two contenders grew, allegations of market manipulation began to spread, prompting Polymarket to investigate US consumers and possible market manipulation.
After the investigation, Polymarket said it had identified a single individual responsible for running four separate accounts – Freddy9999, Teo4, Princess Caro and Michi – on the platform responsible for $28 million in Trump bets.
Although the man has not been named, a Polymarket spokesperson described him as an experienced businessman and a French national.
Shortly after Polymarket published its investigation findings, another whale reportedly put in an additional $2 million in Trump bets. However, the person does not appear to be related to the French national identified by Polymarket.
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