Polymarket ‘is more authentic than voting, because the real money is online’
Technology luminary Elon Musk recently sparked a wave of interest in the decentralized prediction market Polymarket – the billionaire said that the site can more accurately predict the results of the 2024 US presidential election than traditional polls.
Musk's comments came on the X social media platform he currently owns. Over the past few months, the billionaire has been throwing his support behind US presidential candidate and former President Donald Trump.
Recently, Butler gave a speech in support of Trump during a speech by Musk at a campaign event in Pennsylvania.
Polymarket
According to Polymarket, on October 6, when Musk posted, Trump was leading Democratic candidate Kamala Harris by three percentage points.
Elon Musk said in a social media post that Polymarket is more accurate than traditional polling. Source: Elon Musk
“Trump now leads Kamala by 3% in betting markets. More accurate than polls because real money is on the line.”
Polymarket is a decentralized prediction market that allows users to pay USD Coin (USDC) on the outcome of an event.
As Cointelegraph recently reported, the United States presidential election is the most active event in the site's history. Some analysts even cite the growing popularity of prediction markets as a public good.
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It is currently unclear how “correct” Polymarket will be when it comes to the 2024 US presidential election.
While Musk and some analysts say that backing their predictions with money encourages a more accurate market, there is also an argument that predicting a financial winner isn't necessarily the same as a person's political views.
A person may, for example, pledge to vote for a candidate even if their opponent is predicted or rumored to be the eventual winner.
In related news, polymarket activity surrounding the identity of the creator of Bitcoin (BTC), the legendary Satoshi Nakamoto, of HBO. It seems to have reached a fever pitch until the October 8 reveal.
As of this writing, the total pool has reached nearly $400,000, led by the late American computer scientist Len Sassaman by a wide margin.
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