Polymarket’s Bitcoin price forecast says $75K, but charts don’t.

Bitcoin price has traded around $68,000 in the past 24 hours, indicating continued indecisiveness. The seven-day broad trend is still modestly bearish, indicating the absence of strong bullish momentum. However, one forecast market position is telling a more optimistic story.

At Polymarket, the single largest February gainer, by 17%, expects Bitcoin to surpass $75,000. This makes it the most popular directional bet as the last week of the month approaches. However, market structure, activity on the chain and whale positioning suggest that reality may not match this bullish outlook.

Prediction markets will bring 75,000 dollars in favor – but the problem of hidden signs of depression

Forecast market data shows that ‘above $75,000' remains the most preferred target for February, despite weakening sentiment. Polymarket volumes, for this bet, are over $88 million, with millions of active liquidity.

However, the probability of a $75,000 result has already dropped by more than 50%, indicating a lack of confidence.

At the same time, the next most likely result is placed under $60,000 with a 12% probability. This position reflects the growing fragmentation of expectations. Although many traders are still hoping for an upside, a large part of the market is preparing for a deep correction instead.

This growing caution closely aligns with Bitcoin's technical structure.

On the daily chart, Bitcoin made a lower high between November 15th and February 16th. This means that the price failed to fully recover during the last test of support.

Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI), which measures the strength of the momentum, made a higher level during the same period.

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Since Bitcoin was already in a downtrend, this creates a hidden bearish divergence. This pattern indicates a continuation of the existing downtrend rather than a reversal of momentum. Although the pace has improved in the short term, the broad selling pressure remains.

Since this divergence appeared, Bitcoin has already made a correction of almost 6%. As long as this signal remains active, the probability of the forecast market reaching the $75,000 target is limited.

Long-time owners have slowed down sales, but haven't started buying.

Long-term bond activity helps explain why forecast markets still hold some optimism, even as risks continue to mount. These investors may have held Bitcoin for more than 1 year. Their buying and selling patterns often determine whether Bitcoin enters a sustained rally or correction.

In the year By February 21st, this number had improved to 81,019 BTC. This represents a 67% reduction in sales pressure.

This will help stabilize Bitcoin's price amid a major selloff and explains why some traders are bullish.

However, long-term owners are generally net sellers. They haven't moved to inventory yet. Their activity has improved, but they are not yet providing the strong buying support needed to push Bitcoin to new highs.

This creates a neutral balance. Bitcoin may avoid an immediate crash, but it also lacks the strength needed for a major crash to push toward $75,000.

Whale behavior is divided.

The position of the whale shows more uncertainty.

The largest Bitcoin well, which holds between 100,000 and 1 million BTC, increased their holdings from 676,540 BTC to 690,000 BTC. This represents a stock of 13,460 BTC, indicating a cautious purchase.

However, smaller whales holding between 10,000 and 100,000 BTC reduced their holdings from 2.27 million BTC to 2.26 million BTC. This means approximately 10,000 BTC were sold at the same time.

This contrasting behavior indicates a lack of uniform judgment, although the net balance is slightly tilted towards accumulation. Some whales are preparing for rehabilitation, while others remain in conservation.

At the same time, cost base distribution data shows a high resistance cluster between $72,600 and $73,200. 149,000 BTC are stored in this region. These levels are clearly visible on the price chart as a major protection zone below $75,000.

As Bitcoin approaches this area, many holders may sell to exit during the break. And as it turns out, the strength of the whale stock is not enough to absorb the supply. This selling pressure creates a strong barrier that forecast markets can underestimate.

The structure of the Bitcoin price shows that BTC may remain locked between key levels

Bitcoin's price structure closely aligns with these on-chain cost structures.

To reach the $75,000 forecast goal, Bitcoin must first break above $72,200. This level represents both technical resistance and is close to one of the largest cost basis sets on the chart. Breaking this zone would require a rally of over 6% from the current level.

However, failure to break this resistance increases the likelihood of a move in the continuation range. On the downside, strong support is found between $64,300 and $63,800, where approximately 150,000 BTC is stored.

On the Bitcoin price chart, the key support level that resembles the zone is $63,300, a break of which would mean the termination of the supply cluster. A break below $63,300 would make the $60,000 zone, a 12% probability bet on Polymarket, profitable.

For this reason, Bitcoin is currently caught between two main cost zones. Resistance near $72,200 will limit the upside, while support near $63,300 will prevent an immediate decline.

This range-bound structure suggests that forecast markets may anticipate a potential breakout near $75,000, assuming an increasing risk of consolidation or correction.