Prediction markets are not being used – the founder of Kalshi
Former President Trump's 20-point lead over Polimarket Vice President Kamala Harris raised concerns of cheating. Tarek Mansoor – the founder of Kalshi Prediction Market – recently argued that these results are accurate and not the result of inorganic manipulation by providing inconsistent Kalshi data.
Mansour began by dismissing media reports that a handful of big whales were twisting the odds by supporting Trump. According to Kalshi's founder, “the average bet on Harris is bigger than the average bet on Donald Trump,” with Harris' average bet at $85 compared to Trump's at $58.
The founder also explained that many individuals on Kalshi's platform are betting on Trump, and that the 20-point lead reflected in Polymarket indicates that the number of individuals betting on Trump will win Kalshi's November election.
Kalshi 2024 Election Odds. Source: Tarek Mansoor
Mansoor went on to counter popular claims that Kalshi is an “American-only” prediction market – unlike Polymarket – that current prediction market opportunities are the result of foreign manipulation. “Prediction markets are the new unbiased source of truth,” Kalshi's founder asserted in summing up his argument.
Related: Kalshi's selection betting contracts will be multiplied after the court winner
The new source of truth and public interest?
Industry executives and political pundits have heatedly debated prediction markets and their merits in traditional elections. Figures like billionaire Elon Musk believe that prediction markets are more accurate than polls.
Musk argues that when money is online, the results are more accurate. However, critics have pointed out that because individuals in the United States are not allowed to use Polymarket, it raises some concerns about the accuracy of results from a separate forecasting platform.
Vice President Harris was leading Trump at Polymarket for most of August and September. Even when Trump was able to gain a lead, it was usually by a few percentage points. However, in the first half of October, the former president began to significantly increase his chances of securing the Oval Office on the forecast platform.
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