Prediction markets see more than 65% chance of Iran’s supreme leader being ousted in 2026
Key receivers
Polymarket and Kalshi show that Iran's supreme leader is increasingly likely to leave office. Contracts are now worth more than 65% through 2026.
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Forecast markets now place Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei at about a 65% chance of stepping down or being removed by the end of 2026, sparking popular protests and a deep economic crisis that will destabilize the country.
According to Polymarket, Khamenei's starting chances rose from 30% to about 65% at the end of December. Various contracts show a 24% chance of exit on January 31, 46% on March 31 and 53% on June 30.
Kalshi values Khamenei's exit before 2027 at 66%, up from 30% just weeks ago.
Hundreds have been killed and thousands arrested in the unrest in Iran. The country is experiencing 45 percent inflation and a depreciating riyal, making basic goods such as meat and cooking oil unaffordable for many.
US sanctions against Iran's nuclear program, coupled with corruption and mismanagement, have plunged the economy further into crisis.
US President Donald Trump has warned of military action if protesters are killed. Countries doing business with Iran may face a 25% tariff on their trade with the US, he said.
Khamenei, who has ruled for more than 36 years, holds ultimate power over Iran's military, foreign policy and domestic affairs, although there is an elected parliament.
