A simple yes or no can still be complex. Differences in Robert F. Kennedy Jr.'s words caused apparent confusion and volatility in the polymarket today, as the independent presidential candidate suspended his campaign for the US presidency.
Polymarket Bet A total of more than $300,000 is tied to whether the head of the Kennedy political dynasty will be “released on Friday.” He said the market would get a “yes” answer if Kennedy officially announced his withdrawal from the November election.
According to Kennedy, those chances gave him a 6 percent chance as a candidate He insisted He was not completely out of the race. Instead, Kennedy was removing his name from the ballot in battleground states like Arizona, which could have skewed the election's final results.
The plunge happened within minutes as Polymarket traders pegged a 90% chance of a Friday exit shortly before Kennedy's speech in Arizona. At one point, the odds rose to a 99% chance before falling.
“I'm not stopping my campaign, I'm just suspending it,” Kennedy said. “I'm going to stick to the polls in a series of battleground states where I'm going to hand the election to the Democrats and I'm going to disagree on the most pressing issues.”
As confusion grew, polymarket traders debated whether the stream should be resolved each way. Kennedy's chances of quitting today, meanwhile, have steadily increased. Still, as of this writing, the market is leaning toward “No,” with a 41% chance of a Kennedy breakout.
“What's going on?” Polymarket user Donkov he askedKennedy buys and sells stocks that cross at least 10 times in an hour.
“I'm watching the stream, and I don't know what it is [this] Polymarket user Grady McPhair is trying to say. Added. “So I sold all my ‘yes'.”
Polymarket is no stranger to controversial results. The stage has seen many this year, including a 680,000 dollars market in JuneThe so-called Omnichain interoperability protocol hinges on whether LayerZero has airdropped.
That market was contentious, leaving the outcome to the UMA, which resolved disputes using arbitration. Through what UMA describes as a “decentralized truth machine,” holders of UMA tokens are instructed to choose exactly which outcome is achieved.
Some Polymarket users have posted articles from news outlets supporting their bets. one Fox News Text Shared, for example, when Kennedy “ended his bid for the White House,” one Text from Reuters “He left the campaign on Friday,” Kennedy said.
As of this writing, the Polymarket race against Kennedy has not been contested. The race was decided to end at midnight on Friday.
Edited by Ryan Ozawa.
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