Solana Price Forecast for January 2026: Bullish Repeat?
Solana's price is down 12% in the last 30 days. In the year As 2026 approaches, the chart shows a mix of bullish and bearish signals.
Some indicators point to a mass exit in January, while others indicate that the pressure may continue if the momentum fails to materialize.
History is bullish, but ETF flows and expert views are divided.
January was a strong month for Solana. The average return is around 59%, and the average profit is around 22%. When December ends red, the pattern is drawn.
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In the year In 2022, SOL decreased by 29.6% in December, and in January 2023, SOL increased by 140%. In December 2024, SOL decreased by 20.5%, and in January 2025, it increased by 22.3%. It is down 6.94% so far this month, statistically leaning towards a recovery.
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ETF data supports that idea. Since inception, Solana spot ETFs have not posted a week of net outflows. The latest week added $13.14 million (an incomplete week still), bringing the total to $755.77 million.
That steady demand is indicative of voting confidence in SOL at a time when other major segments face withdrawals.
In a chat with BeInCrypto, the B2BinPay analytics team explains what this means for Solana and the wider market:
“Investors are not driving wholesale from Bitcoin and Ethereum to the altcoin market. They prefer a small liquid group, popular tokens with low page control and positions that can be closed quickly if necessary.”
That's why only a few altcoins like Solana or XRP are seeing revenues, while most of the market is quiet. Now the flows into Solana should not be read first as Altesson. These activities are narrow and particularly selective,” he said.
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This supports SOL's ETF earnings, but cautions against the move as a broad alt-season setup.
Chart signals hint at a reversal, but EMAs and derivatives show resistance
On the two-day chart, the SOL price made a new low between November 21 and December 17, while the RSI (Relative Strength Index, a gauge of overbought/oversold momentum) moved higher. That's a big difference and could point to early trends if buyers follow.
But the state of depression is sitting next to him.
In the same timeframe, the 100-period EMA (Exponential Moving Average, a trend-tracking line that reacts quickly to price) is on the verge of crossing below the 200-period EMA.
If that bearish breakout is confirmed, bearish pressure could continue into late December or early January before any recovery occurs. Until that intersection is removed or flipped, the technical chart remains divided.
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Derivatives positioning shows more caution. On Hyperliquid, almost every trader has a net short position in the last seven days.
Top 100 addresses, smart funds and Solana Well accounts are all short. However, some groups (smart money, public representatives and winners) open gradually longer. That could be in anticipation of the January 2026 recession as previously reported.
This balances the composition. Momentum suggests a reversal is likely. EMAs and derivatives positions argue for patience. If Solana wants to build on the January rally, he needs to reverse that bullish sentiment from the shorts by avoiding the EMA cross.
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Key Solana price levels: $129 is the pivot, $116 is the fail-safe.
The SOL retails for $124. A two-day close above $129 confirms strength and opens a path to $150. If ETF gains hold and RSI momentum continues to build, it could clear $150 and then target $171.
Cost-based heat map information explains why $129 is important. One of the strongest supply sets sits between $123 and $124, and SOL is currently fighting through it.
A close above $129 clears that cluster and removes immediate upside resistance. Above that, offer up to $165 to $167, which will improve the odds of a continuation if that amount is reached.
A cost-based heat map tracks where large groups of holders have acquired their tokens, highlighting zones where supply or demand is converging.
On the downside, $116 remains a fail-safe. Losing that level would break the historic “Red December, Green January” trend and set the tone for the continuation of the downtrend. A confirmed bearish EMA crossover, accompanied by a break below $116, resets expectations for the month.
For now, the transaction is defined in two steps. Above $129, bullish momentum allows the unit to move to $150 and $171. Below $116, buyers will lose control, and the typical strength of January may not be seen.
