Solana’s price can drop to $65 when the unreserved increase increases by 150%
Solana's price remains under significant pressure in early February, with the token down nearly 30% over the past 30 days and trading in a weakening descending channel. As long-term delinquency fades, price will continue to grind toward the lower bound of this structure.
At the same time, net stock movements have fallen, exchange buying has slowed, and short traders are rebuilding positions. Together, these signs suggest that more SOL may be available for sale just as technical support weakens.
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Collapsing meets the risk of channel breakage.
Solana's recent weakness has been compounded by a sharp decline in savings activity. Solana's Stock Divergence Metric tracks the weekly net change in SOL locked in a native wallet account. Positive values indicate new compaction, while negative readings indicate net dissolution.
By late November, long-term delinquency was strong. In the year During the week of November 24, stock accounts recorded a net income of 6.34 million SOL, a major savings milestone.
That trend has now completely changed. By mid-January, the weekly water flow had turned negative. The week ending January 19th showed -449,819 SOL net unfiled funds. In the year On February 2nd, this escalated to -1,155,788 SOL, an increase of over 150% in two weeks.
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This means that increasing amounts of SOL are being released from storage and returned to liquid circulation. Once registered, these tokens can be transferred to exchanges and sold immediately, increasing risk.
This decline is occurring near the lower edge of the downtrending channel, with a 30% chance of a breakout in play.
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With SOL hovering near $96, the combination of technical weakness and increasing liquidity creates a risky setup. If selling accelerates, channel support may not last.
As the audience increases exposure, the exchange rate decreases
The bearish movement is now being reflected in currency flows. Exchange Network Position Change tracks how much SOL moves on or off exchanges over a 30-day period. Negative values indicate net flow and accumulation, increasing readings decrease demand.
In the year On February 3, it weakened to around -1.66 million SOL. In two days, the exchange's flow fell by 26 percent, indicating a decrease in inventory.
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This will accelerate as the decline in purchases is occurring and increase the amount of SOL available for trade. As demand weakens and supply increases, prices are prone to sharp falls.
At the same time, speculative activity is increasing.
HODL Waves data, which separates wallets by holding time, showed the one-day to one-week group increased its share between February 2 and February 3 from 3.51% to 5.06%.
The same behavior appeared at the end of January. On January 27, SOL was trading around $127 and this group held 5.26% of the supply. On January 30, when the price fell to $ 117, their share fell to 4.31%, a decrease of almost 8%.
This pattern suggests that speculative funds are held for short-term loans rather than long-term ones, which increases the risk of flashovers.
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Key Solana price levels still point to $65 risk
Technical structure continues to reflect weakness in chain data. SOL remains locked in a downward channel that has lowered its price since November. After missing the crucial $98 support zone, the price is now trading around $96, near the lower border of the channel.
If this support fails, the next major downside target is near $67 based on Fibonacci projections. A deeper move may extend to $65, synchronizing with the channel's full 30% breakout.
Recovery from the top remains difficult. The first level Solana needs to recover from is $98, followed by strong resistance around $117, which has seen several rallies in January. More than $117 in continuous activity is required to destroy the bearing structure.
Until then, the downside risks are high.
More SOL is entering the distribution just as technical support weakens due to breakdowns, market buying weakens and speculative positions increase. Unless long-term stocks rebound, Solana remains vulnerable to a deep correction to $65.
