Spot Ethereum ETFs now have a direct shot at approval – analysts
With 11 spot bitcoin (BTC) currencies approved on January 10, the spot ether (ETH) ETF should have a clear path to approval by 2024 — and one analyst is giving it a 70% chance of approval by May.
Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas previously told Cointelegraph that he doesn't see a situation where Bitcoin ETFs are approved but Ether ETFs are not.
“The Ether space is definitely attached to the hip of the Bitcoin space. It goes wherever it goes. It's basically like it's on a 15-foot rope following it.”
Balchunas said he had heard “in back channels” that the Ether ETF was “going to be good.”
A new deadline for suppression has fallen
May 23rd is the deadline for a decision on VanEck's spot ETH ETF pic.twitter.com/dgi5EVbPeQ
— Will (@WClementeIII) January 10, 2024
Meanwhile, digital asset attorney Joe Carlassare also tipped for Ether ETFs to be approved this year, but believes it will “take a little longer than people expect.”
“Ethereum spot ETFs approved [but] The SEC tries to carefully craft a precedent that allows them to retain some discretion in deciding which digital assets are allowed to come to market.
“In other words, I think the SEC is trying to issue a directive that prevents applicants from offering ETFs for every major token,” Carlassare added.
Balchunas said he estimates a 70% chance that the spot ETH ETFs will be approved by May — the month the SEC must make a final decision on many applications — though the launch date is less clear.
After the approval, Ether's price rose by around 3%, reaching above $2500 — the first time since May 2022. Ether is trading at $2533 at press time, up 7% in the last 24 hours.
Carlassare believes spot ETH ETFs won't begin trading until the third quarter of 2024, while Hashdex, one of the spot ether ETF indicators, recently suggested trading of ether products could begin as early as the second quarter.
Ahead of the SEC spot bitcoin approval, Steven McClurg, chief investment officer of Valkyrie Funds, said he wouldn't be surprised if spot ether and XRP (XRP) ETFs bitcoin came to market later.
Related: SEC Seeks Comments on Fidelity's Spot Ether ETF Application
Fellow Bloomberg ETF analyst James Seifert is confident the SEC will give the green light to identify Ether ETFs, as the SEC implicitly accepted ether as a commodity when it approved ether futures ETFs in September.
“By approving those Ethereum futures ETFs, they implicitly accept those Ethereum futures as commodity futures,” Seyfart said during a private webinar on CryptoQuant on January 4.
Well, that's enough space for bitcoin ETFs…
Can we find Ether ETFs?
— Nate Geraci (@NateGeraci) January 10, 2024
BlackRock, VanEyck, ARK 21Shares, Fidelity and Invesco Galaxy, Grayscale and Hashdex are among the Ether ETF applicants vying for SEC approval.
The SEC is expected to rule on VanEck's application on May 23, ARK 21Shares on May 24, Hashdex on May 30, Grayscale on June 18 and Invesco on July 5.
Fidelity and BlackRock applications are due August 3 and August 7.
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