SPX, DXY, BTC, ETH, BNB, SOL, XRP, ADA, AVAX, DOGE
US stock markets continued their strong performance last week. According to Bespoke, the S&P 500 Index ( SPX ) and the Nasdaq 100 have risen for nine straight weeks, their best combined performance since their 11-week winning streak in 1985. In the year Through 2023, the SPX ended with gains of more than 24%, indicating that bulls remain firmly in command.
In contrast, the US dollar index (DXY) is down 2% in 2023, its first annual loss since 2020. Slowing inflation and a 75 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in 2024 keep the dollar index under pressure.
The increasing appetite of investors and the host of crypto-specific positives Bitcoin (BTC) increased by 155% in 2023. In the near future, two events are key to the continuation of Bitcoin's rally. The first will be the regulator's ruling on Bitcoin exchange-traded fund applications expected in the next few days, and the second will be the Bitcoin halving in April.
Will Bitcoin and altcoins correct in the near future or continue their upward movement? Let's examine the charts to find out.
S&P 500 Index Price Analysis
The S&P 500 index remains in strong growth but is seen with a gain of 4,793. Although the trend continues, the relative strength index (RSI) is in the first stage of creating a negative divergence. This shows poor speed.
The bears will try to drag the price towards the 20-day exponential moving average (4,690), which is a key short-term level to watch. A strong advance on the 20-day EMA would improve the rally above 4,793. The index may attempt a psychologically significant rally to the 5,000 level.
Conversely, if the price declines and breaks below the 20-day EMA, it suggests that the bulls will hastily close their positions. That could start a pullback towards 4,650 and then towards the 50-day simple moving average (4,502).
Analysis of the price of the US dollar index
The US Dollar Index has been trading in a wide range between 101 and 108 for several months. The price reached the support on December 27, where buyers entered.
Any upside from current levels is expected to face strong resistance at the 20-day EMA (102.26). If the price breaks below the 20-day EMA, it indicates that the sentiment is negative and traders are selling in rallies. This increases the chance of dropping below 101. The index may fall to 99.57.
Conversely, if buyers move the price above the 20-day EMA, it indicates that the selling pressure is decreasing. The index may rise towards the 50-day SMA (103.88). Such action indicates that regional action may continue for a longer period of time.
Bitcoin price analysis
Bitcoin has fallen to the support line of the ascending triangle pattern, an important level for bulls to defend against.
If the price stays above the 20-day EMA ($42,484), the BTC/USD pair can climb to the upside resistance at $44,700. This level may attract strong selling by the bears, but if the buyers prevail, the pair will complete a higher triangle pattern. This setup has a target of $49,178.
Conversely, if the price breaks below the triangle, it will invalidate the bullish view. The couple can go down to 40,000 dollars. This level could serve as a strong support, but if broken, the decline could extend to $37,980.
Ether price analysis
Ether (ETH) was rejected from $2,446 on December 28 and re-entered the descending channel on December 29. This shows that bears are highly active.
A slight advantage for the bulls is that it does not allow the price to drop below the 20-day EMA ($2,270). However, the selling pressure may increase further if buyers do not push the price above the channel in the next few days.
If the 20-day EMA is broken, the ETH/USDT pair may drop to the 50-day SMA ($2,177) and then to the support line of the channel near $2,000.
On the upside, a break and close above the channel suggests that the bulls have not given up. Buyers will again try to propel the price above $2,446 and initiate the next uptrend towards $3,000.
BNB price analysis
BNB (BNB) is seeing an upward correction. The bulls are trying to catch a reversal in the zone between the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level at $309 and the 50% retracement level at $300.
If the price returns from the support zone, the bulls will try to move higher. The BNB/USDT pair may rise to $326, where the bulls may face strong selling by the bears. If buyers force their way through the barrier, the pair could rise to $338 and eventually $350.
Conversely, if the price falls below $300, the pair may weaken to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level to $291 and then to the neckline.
XRP price analysis
XRP (XRP) has been hovering near its moving averages for the past few days, indicating a lack of strong buying or selling.
There is minimal support at $0.60. If the price recovers from this level, the XRP/USDT pair may try to rise above the lower line. If this happens, it indicates that the selling pressure is decreasing. The pair may test the $0.74 rally.
Contrary to this assumption, if the price falls below $0.60, the pair may drop to the critical support at $0.56. This level can attract strong buying by bulls because a break below it completes a bearish triangle pattern. The pair is likely to plunge to $0.46.
Solana price analysis
Solana (SOL) has been trading above the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of $96.68 for the past few days, but the bulls could not continue the upward trend.
The first signal of strength breaks and closes above $110. That could open the door to retesting the high at $126. If this level is broken, the SOL/USDT pair may rise to $156, increasing momentum.
Crucial support to watch on the downside is the 20-day EMA ($95). If this level holds, the pair may oscillate between the 20-day EMA and $110 for a few days. A break and close below the 20-day EMA could signal the start of a sharp pullback to the 50-day SMA ($74).
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Cardano price analysis
Cardano ( ADA ) continues to trade in a balanced triangle pattern, indicating indecision between bulls and bears.
Although the symmetrical triangle is often used as a continuation pattern, it is difficult to predict the direction of the break with certainty. So it is better to wait for the breakout before taking a directional bet.
If the price rises from the support line and rises above the triangle, it shows the advantage for the buyers. The ADA/USDT pair may rise to $0.68 and then to $0.80.
On the contrary, the slide below the triangle shows that the bears are under control. That could start a fall to $0.51.
Price analysis
The bulls have been successfully defending the $38 support, but Avalanche (AVAX) has been unable to sustain above the 20-day EMA ($40).
The flat 20-day EMA and RSI above the midpoint do not give a clear advantage to either the bulls or the bears. If the price rises above the 20-day EMA, the AVAX/USDT pair may rise to $45 and then to the recent high at $50.
On the other hand, if the price breaks below $38, it indicates that bears are in the driver's seat. That could strengthen the selloff, and the pair could drop to $34 and later to the 50-day SMA ($31.13).
Dogecoin price analysis
Dogecoin (DOGE) is trading tight near the 20-day EMA ($0.09), and the price touched the 50-day SMA ($0.09) on December 31.
A strong rebound from the 50-day SMA on January 1 indicates that the bulls are holding the level strongly. If buyers push the price above the 20-day EMA, the DOGE/USDT pair could reach $0.10. The bears can mount a strong defense at this stage.
If the price declines from the resistance above, the pair may remain stuck between $0.10 and the 50-day SMA for some time. The bears will break out of the top if the pair breaks below the 50-day SMA. That could start a downward trip to $0.07.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and business activity involves risk, and readers should do their own research when making a decision.
