Imagine a world where humanoid robots outnumber humans—it's a reality, Tesla CEO Elon Musk says we'll see by 2040.
Musk's prediction came at the annual Future of Investment Initiative conference in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia on Tuesday.
“I think by 2040 there will probably be more humanoid robots than humans,” Musk told the audience. “Every country will have an AI or multiple AIs, and there will be more robots than people.”
According to the US Census Bureau's World Population Clock data, the current population is around 8.2 billion people.
Musk has previously talked about the rise of humanoid robots and advanced AI and how it will affect humanity, going so far as to say that humanity is facing a ‘crisis of meaning'.
“If you have humanoid robots — if there's no real limit to the number of humanoid robots — and they can act very intelligently, there's no economic limit to that,” he said at the 2024 All-In Summit. On the All-In Podcast, in September.
But experts disagree with Musk's claim that an AI robot revolution is imminent.
“Elon has a track record of over-optimistic predictions about AI, and this is no different,” says author and scientist Gary Marcus, comparing owning a robot to owning a car.
“There are only about 1.5 billion cars on the road; not many people can afford them or don't see the need,” Marcus said.
Marcus is a cognitive scientist, AI researcher, and author of six books on artificial intelligence known for criticizing exaggerated AI claims. In September, Marcus criticized OpenAI for not delivering on GPT-5 or Sora despite its $150 billion valuation.
“It's absolutely crazy,” he said. “Investors should not invest more money at higher valuations. They should ask what is going on.
When the new autonomous Cyber Cab was unveiled earlier this month, Musk said Tesla's Optimus robots are affordable, with long-term costs estimated at $20,000 to $30,000 each.
While Musk has promised affordable robots for everyone, economic and safety concerns, along with major software and hardware challenges, make widespread adoption of humanoid robots unlikely in the near future.
“The best-selling consumer robot of all time, the Roomba, retails for a few hundred dollars and sells about 50 million units,” Marcus said. “The thought of selling 200 times more humanoid robots in the near future without anyone knowing how to build a safe, reliable, and generally useful humanoid at any cost is a nightmare.”
Edited by Sebastian Sinclair.
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