The 23-month bear market theory will be tested in February
Bitcoin recorded its first green weekly candle after five consecutive red weeks. This move represents a significant recovery after a long period of decline. Many commentators go further.
Expect the bear market to end in February, and a more positive phase has already begun.
After months of heavy capital outflows, new positive signs emerged. These signs reinforce that situation.
Why the 23-month Bitcoin cycle theory?
A recent analysis by an experienced trader has caught the attention of crypto investors.
The analysis argues that Bitcoin peaks after exactly 23 months in each cycle.
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Since the recent ATH, the market has now reached the 23-month mark. This time fits perfectly with the previous cycle pattern.
“Bitcoin has hit a bear market low in exactly 23 months after the ATH in every single cycle. We are now sitting in 23 months. This has never failed,” said Coinvo Trading.
Veteran trader Peter Brandt describes this observation as a stronger argument than other market narratives. The pattern suggests that the bear market may end in February. He also suggests that recovery may begin next month.
Yesterday, the total market capitalization returned 6 percent. It grew from $2.19 trillion to $2.32 trillion. This recovery reflects growing investor optimism. Many see the opportunity now that Bitcoin and altcoin prices have fallen sharply.
In addition, Google Trends data shows that the search for “buy Bitcoin” has reached its highest level since 2021. This trend indicates the arrival of new investors.
However, other analysts consider this situation premature. They believe the market needs at least six more months before a sustained recovery begins. Historically, they base this view on chain data models.
Moreover, stablecoin flows into exchanges remained negative in the last week of February. This data may weaken the argument for a 23-month bear market.
Leon Weidman, head of research at Lisk, said that stable coin flows tend to leave exchanges rather than enter them. This trend indicates that buying pressure is insufficient to support a sustained Bitcoin rally.
“Look at the chart. Last year every major BTC rally was triggered by a huge green bar (stablecoin inflows). Now? Deep red. Nearly $10 billion in net inflows. BTC won't get a sustained bid until this changes. That's simple,” said Leon Weidman.
Although the market has rallied after several weeks of decline, the bear market may need more confirmation before declaring its end. A recent analysis from BeInCrypto identifies the $70,000 level as a key threshold under current conditions. Bitcoin needs to recover and hold this level to continue moving higher.
