The biggest US dollar gain – 5 things to know in Bitcoin this week
Bitcoin (BTC) starts the month of December with $100,000 in sight, but it cannot be reached at sunset like any other month.
Falling below all-time highs has Bitcoin traders speculating when the magical six-figure BTC price tag will arrive. November 2024 sets record for Bitcoin's largest US dollar gain in a single monthly candle. – A key ingredient to lean forward. A tough week of US employment data precedes the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision. Onchain's profit trends are channeling a classic parabolic bull market swing with the SOPR “golden cross”.
Bitcoin works on a “bull flag” below $100,000
After confirming a key BTC price breakout since November, Bitcoin avoided flash volatility heading into the weekly close.
BTC/USD continues to hover around $95,000 on December 2, below what many see as a watershed level of $100,000, according to data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView.
BTC/USD 1-Hour Chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView
Putting BTC's recent price action into context, prominent trader and analyst Rekt Capital revealed a successful support test.
“Bitcoin bounces back +7% after successfully testing ~$91,000 (red) as support,” he wrote in a recent daily chart posted on X.
“In the short term, it's worth watching how the price action continues to develop within this potential bull flag structure.”
BTC/USD 1-day chart. Source: Rekt Capital/X
Rect Capital added that a daily close above $97,450 “could start a further trend toward a challenge near $100,000.”
To the downside, Keith Allan, founder of trading resources Material Indicators, pointed out that support is now at $95,000 and $90,000.
BTC/USDT liquidity information. Source: Keith Allan/Ex
“A short-term support test is possible,” trader Kevin Svensson explained in part in his own X Post analysis of the 4-hour timeframe.
“In general, my bias is short-lived and brutal.”
BTC/USD 4-Hour Chart. Source: Kevin Svenson/X
The accompanying chart targets $93,500 as the next support test zone.
Monthly BTC Price Performance: “New Ball Game”
Bitcoin may not be at $100,000 yet, but over the weekend, BTC price action quietly made history.
Clearing the November monthly shaman at $96,400, BTC/US closed its highest one-month USD gain.
“This is a whole new ball game,” reads Corey Clipston, CEO of investment platform Swan Bitcoin.
BTC/USD 1-Month Chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView
The candle clearly stands out as something unprecedented on the monthly chart, but percentage wise, it's really nothing out of the ordinary.
Data from wealth tracker CoinGlass shows that just over 37% of November's rise can't compete with Bitcoin's most successful eleventh month of the year.
BTC/USD Monthly Returns (Snapshot). Source: CoinGlass
For Charles Edwards, founder of quant bitcoin and digital asset fund Capriole Investments, the balance needs to be rebalanced soon.
“Each cycle returns 4-7 months of crazy bitcoin price gains. We got the 1st in November!” He argued over the weekend.
“The next few months are going to be crazy long opportunities. The common mind is not ready.”
Edwards continued that breaking the $100,000 mark would usher in a new parabolic behavior for the price.
Real FOMO starts above $100k. Once the epic sales wall falls, we enter a supply gap. Do the math,” he wrote.
Earlier, Edwards pointed out that after its breakout, Bitcoin should copy gold through this year's key resistance.
Funding rates will remain.
Market stability may allow a shot at a six-figure bitcoin adjustment.
As noted by popular trader Jelle this week, while the price trade is at an all-time high, liquidity on all exchanges remains at manageable levels.
“There is a lot of talk about prices needing a big rebound and the market being healthy. Meanwhile, price freezes at $95,000 with initial funding,” he told X followers.
Heat map of crypto fund rates (screenshot). Source: CoinGlass
Funding has shown a relaxed trend for weeks, although BTC/USD has set new records.
“Considering the number of people who are calling it ‘high signals' recently, the amount of money on bitcoin is still very low…” echoed the popular analysis account Bitcoindata21 last week on X.
Bitcoin future funding rates. Source: Bitcoindata21/X
Bitcoindata21 compared the current Bitcoin bull market to 2021, when the amount of money was many times higher. Even in March 2024, when BTC/USD set an old all-time high of $73,800, significant financial support was seen.
US jobs information in the spotlight
The labor market will dominate the week's US macroeconomic data as the countdown to the Fed's next interest rate decision begins.
Job openings on December 3 are followed by jobless claims two days later, ending the week with unemployment reports.
“This is a big week for the labor market,” summarized trade resource Kobeisi Letter in a commentary on the macro diary.
Kobeisi noted that the publications were “labor market data for the last week before the December 18 Fed meeting.”
On December 18, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will decide whether or not to change benchmark interest rates. As Cointelegraph continues to report, overall bets remain on a fresh 0.25% decline, but markets are much less certain than in previous months.
Data from CME Group's FedWatch Tool currently puts the odds of a 0.25% cut at 67%.
Fed target rate odds. Source: CME Group
“If Bitcoin's breakout doesn't happen before the December 18th FOMC meeting, a 25bps rate cut would not only be an early Christmas present, but possibly the catalyst that would send $BTC over $100K,” continued Allen of Material Indicators.
“On the other hand, it is unlikely that any cut will trigger a correction and BTC flash selloff.”
The golden cross of the Bitcoin metric teases a “sharp rise”.
Bitcoin analysis is finding new signs that support a continuation to the upside.
RELATED: Fund Strategist Echoes 6-Figure BTC Price Targets, Sees $250K+ By 2025
This week, the current bull market posted only its second “golden cross” with cost overrun profits (SOPR) on the radar.
Highlighting the event, Crypto Dan, a promoter for onchain analytics platform CryptoQuant, said the implications were unequivocal.
“After the golden cross appears, the market will start a strong rally in the last 2 months,” he wrote in one of CryptoQuant's Quicktake blog posts on December 2.
“The upcoming rise could be a ‘sharp rise at the end of a high cycle'.”
Bitcoin SOPR data (screenshot). Source: CryptoQuant
SOPR measures whether or not coins used in onchain transactions are advancing to the final transaction at a higher or lower price, thereby defining onchain profitability. A golden cross occurs when a metric's 30-day moving average crosses above its 365-day counterpart.
“As the market moves into the later stages of the cycle, the upswings are higher, and the downswing/correction periods are shorter,” the article continued.
By the end of 2024 In the first quarter of 2025, as indicated by this indicator, it can be expected that in the event of a higher increase, new income and additional funds will enter the market and bring it to the highest level.
Earlier, Cointelegraph reported increased selling pressure from Bitcoin's more experienced hodler groups.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and business activity involves risk, and readers should do their own research when making a decision.
