The BTC market will be transformed as a ‘new whale’ with a 50% dominance

Newly released Bitcoin (BTC) onchain data points to a structural transition with less classic cyclical tops or bottoms and more capital entering the market.

Main Receptors:

Nearly 50% of Bitcoin's realized cap is now occupied by “new whales,” indicating a structural reset of the network's cost base.

Short-term hold (STH) supply has expanded by approximately 100,000 BTC in 30 days, indicating high demand.

New whales are rewriting Bitcoin's spending base.

According to data from CryptoQuant, addresses classified as new whales now account for about 50% of Bitcoin's cap. The realized cap measures the value of BTC by the price at which each coin last moved, meaning that this change reflects where capital has entered the network, not who has the most coins.

Before 2025, new whales will hold no more than 22% of Bitcoin's real cap. Past bull markets were led by whales who accumulated at low prices and gradually distributed, but now new whales are deploying large amounts of capital at high prices.

In particular, during market upswings, the proportion of certified caps held by new whales increased.

Related: Bitcoin Weekly RSI Drops to Oversold Level Since $15K BTC Price

Short-term interest increased as whales dipped to $85,000.

The short term net position change (30-day) reached a high of almost 100,000 BTC. This measure tracks the net change in supply of coins held for less than 155 days and shows the aggressive inventory accumulated by new arrivals.

Such expansions occur in high momentum levels when demand exceeds supply, although volatility is high.

Meanwhile, the latest Binance earnings data indicates that coins older than 155 days remain mostly inactive, confirming that long-term holders are not distributing. Instead, selling came primarily from short-holders reacting to price weakness.

More importantly, about 37% of the BTC sent to Binance originated from whale wallets (1,000-10,000 BTC), indicating that large capital is actively engaged in the activity.

Data from Hyblock reinforces this view. Cumulative Volume Delta (CVD), which measures whether buyers or sellers are dominant, this week's positive posting of a $135 million delta shows the whale bags.

In contrast, retail ($0-$10,000) and medium-sized businesses ($10,000-$100,000) recorded negative deltas of $84 million and $172 million, respectively. In effect, smaller players have reduced exposure while larger players absorb sales pressure.

Related: Fidelity macro lead calls $65K Bitcoin down in 2026, end of bull cycle

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