The chances of Bitcoin returning to $90k in March are slim.
Key considerations:
Bitcoin fell below $63,000 as weak US jobs data and fears over AI industry investments eased investor fears.
Options markets show a 6% chance of Bitcoin returning to $90,000 in March.
Bitcoin (BTC) slipped below $63,000 on Thursday, hitting its lowest level since November 2024. A 30% decline since a failed attempt to break $90,500 on January 28 has made traders skeptical of any immediate bullish momentum. The current bearish sentiment is fueled by lackluster US labor market data and rising concerns about high capital spending in the artificial intelligence sector.
Regardless of whether Bitcoin's decline was triggered by macroeconomic shifts, options traders are now pricing BTC up just 6% to regain $90,000 in March.
On the Deribit exchange, a March 27 option to buy Bitcoin for $90,000 (call option) traded at $522 on Thursday. This valuation suggests that investors see little opportunity for a major rally. According to the BlackScholes model, these options reflect a less than 6% chance of Bitcoin reaching $90,000 at the end of March. For context, the right to sell Bitcoin for $50,000 (a put option) traded at $1,380, indicating a 20% chance of a deep crash.
Quantum Computing Concerns and Forced Liquidation Fears Drive Bitcoin Selloff
Market participants have reduced their exposure to crypto due to quantum computing risks and fears of forced liquidation by companies that have built Bitcoin reserves with debt and equity. In the year In mid-January, Christopher Wood, head of global equity strategy at Jefferies, removed a 10% bitcoin allocation from his model portfolio, citing the risk of quantum computers reverse-engineering private keys.
Strategy (MSTR US), the largest publicly listed company with on-chain BTC reserves, recently saw its enterprise value drop to $53.3 billion, with a cost base of $54.2 billion. Japan's Metaplanet ( MPJPY US ) faces a similar gap, with a valuation of $2.95 billion against a purchase price of $3.78 billion. Investors worry that a prolonged bear market could force these companies to sell their positions to cover debt obligations.
External factors contributed to increased risk exposure, and even silver, the second-highest traded asset by market capitalization, suffered a 36% weekly drop after hitting an all-time high of $121.70 on Jan. 29.
Bitcoin's 27% weekly decline closely mirrors the losses seen in several billion-dollar listed companies, including Thomson Reuters ( TRI ), PayPal ( PYPL ), Robinhood ( HOOD ), and Applovin ( APP ).
U.S. employers announced 108,435 layoffs in January, up 118% from the same period in 2025, according to the firm Challenger, Gray and Christmas. In the year It posted the largest number of January contractions since 2009, when the economy neared the end of its worst recession in 80 years.
RELATED: The Next Level of Bitcoin Accumulation May Hinge on Credit Stress Timing-Data
Market sentiment weakened after Google ( GOOG US ) reported on Wednesday that Capital spending is expected to reach $180 billion in 2026, up from $91.5 billion in 2025.
Businesses expect investments in artificial intelligence to take longer to pay off amid increasing competition and production bottlenecks, including power shortages and memory chip shortages.
Thursday's slide to $62,300 reflected uncertainty around economic growth and US employment, prompting a correction to $90,000 in the near term.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and business activity involves risk, and readers should do their own research when making a decision. While we strive to provide accurate and up-to-date information, Cointelegraph does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness or reliability of any information in this article. This article may contain forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties. Cointelegraph shall not be liable for any loss or damage arising from reliance on this information.
