The famous ‘Rektember?’ 5 things to know in Bitcoin this week

Bitcoin starts September on a whim as the monthly and weekly closes cause BTC price to fall.

Trading near demand at $57,000, Bitcoin (BTC) lacks bullish sentiment as demand among traders is low.

Is the market for another “Rektember?”

This month is well-documented as a “red” patch for Bitcoin returns, but not every forecast prepares for the worst.

Related: Bitcoin Price Volatility Expected at the Fed's September FOMC Meeting – Here's How to Prepare

The $60,000 mid-range still has traction as a short-term BTC price target, and September also marks the deadline for Bitcoin's post-halving “restock range” to end.

Macro conditions will remain calm this week, and the lack of US headline data will remain a key topic to watch for unemployment figures.

In Bitcoin Flow, Cointelegraph examines the main talking points among market participants as the new month begins.

BTC price courts August low.

Bitcoin failed to impress around the last monthly close, and conditions remained difficult.

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView show that bulls are unable to overcome sell-side pressure, which the popular Trader Skew shows in lower timeframe market conditions.

“Most of last week was a clear position buyer around $58K, which is important context on bonds,” he wrote in part of his latest X analysis.

“Currently the price is around demand but needs to see confirmations of interest from passive and passive buyers.”

However, the skew highlighted broad interest in derivatives markets at current prices, suggesting funding rates could remain “negative or low” for the time being.

“Overall, I see the market preferring shorts as a hedge from here with last week's spot selling week,” he continued.

“But there's been no improvement in market positioning since the sale hit $58k – that tells me people are getting out of the business.”

Data from the tracking resource shows CoinGlass has raised the majority of the auction support to $56,750 as of this writing on September 2nd.

Other traders saw the possibility of a push to local lows before any relief for the bulls, with estimates including $56,000 and $54,000.

They are likely to clear Tuesday's low of 56k before moving higher. Remember Madara's forecast that you may still want to cheat by pushing the price to 49k (Monday August 5 low).

“If the transmission speed happens after 56k, my guess is 60.5k.

Trading partner Captain Fibic suggested that the relief could take the market as high as $68,000 this month.

Labor Day week highlights American jobs

With U.S. markets closed for the Labor Day holiday on September 2, traders will wait until the weekend for any macro-related volatility to emerge.

Macro data is key as markets gauge expectations ahead of the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting on September 18.

The latest data from CME Group's FedWatch Tool currently shows a small rate cut of 0.25% as the most likely of the meeting.

That was a reversal from expectations a month ago, when it was down 0.5% on the highlight amid turmoil from Japan.

Meanwhile, this week's US jobless numbers will take center stage in what should be an overall quiet start to the month.

“We expect higher volatility and favorable trading conditions with a focus on August jobs data,” business resource Kobeisi said in a letter to X followers.

Kobayashi also described the stock market's return since its early August lows, with the S&P 500 adding an average of $250 billion each trading day.

“The S&P 500 has increased its average annual return by 20 trading days,” notes a member of another X thread.

As Cointelegraph reports, stocks and gold have significantly outperformed crypto markets in recent weeks, while bitcoin has continued to decline despite a 40 percent recovery at one point.

All aboard for “Red” September?

BTC/USD finally fell by 8.6% in August, setting the stage for a potentially disastrous September.

The ninth month of the year itself brings losses, according to the data from CoinGlass, it is on average around 4.5% lower.

On the other hand, August will be a “green” month, leaving this year with a historically poor performance.

Despite this, it could all simply be a matter of time – and history could still be on the side of the bulls.

In some of his latest market comments, prominent trader and analyst Rect Capital suggested that BTC/USD is performing in the post-halving gap in line with previous half years.

“History shows that Bitcoin tends to disappear within 150-160 days of a reduction,” he explained in an August 31 post on X.

“This means that Bitcoin will exit the restocking region at the end of September 2024.”

Even Rect Capital admitted that September, Bitcoin's best month, yielded just 6 percent. But October can change the game, with average monthly returns of nearly 23%.

“I wouldn't be surprised if Bitcoin strengthens a bit after late September to meet the October breakout,” he concluded.

“After all, October is always a strong month in history.”

Puell teases the possibility of buying multiples.

The concept of Bitcoin being in a transitional phase in the bull market is also supported by the well-known Pull Multiple metric.

Multiplex compares the daily price of all Bitcoin produced to the 365-day moving average to identify relative buy and sell zones.

According to CryptoQuant, a pool “if all mined bitcoins are immediately sold in the market, how profitable are the mining pools compared to a historical one year ago?” It answers the question.

Currently, the macro is not calling above or below while the pool is moving towards the green long-term “buy” zone, which is characterized by readings of 0.5 and below.

As reported by Cointelegraph, this reliable market entry may prevent it from going much lower than the current spot price.

“An analysis of trends over the past decade shows that when the index falls below the 0.6 threshold, it often represents a good opportunity for dollar-cost averaging (DCA) strategies. Conversely, a breakout above the 0.8 level has historically been associated with bullish market behavior, which regularly pushes the price to a new all-time high (ATH),” contributor Grizzly wrote in one of CryptoQuant's Quicktake blog posts over the weekend.

“Currently, the Puell Multiple index fluctuates between these two critical levels.” Bitcoin Puell Multiple chart (screenshot). Source: CryptoQuant

Deep learning model supports BTC price increase

While September is typically a “red” month for BTC/USD, new analysis suggests 2024 could end up being an exception.

In another Quicktake post on September 1st, CryptoQuant used WaveNet's deep learning model to predict a “relative increase” in the price of BTC.

A similar test in June correctly predicted that the price would track sideways below $60,000 in the coming month.

According to contributing analyst CryptoOnchain, which compiled the latest data, these were “acceptable and close to realistic predictions.”

“For this purpose, all data from 2012 to date have been used as features. The output of the wavenet model shows the probability of a relative increase in the price of Bitcoin in the next month,” he commented.

Related: Bitcoin Covers $60K, But LTC, FET, MNT and AAVE Show Promise

The accompanying results chart shows that price action is biased to the upside, with a 50% chance of price reaching $65,000 in September.

“A range of 0.5 indicates a 50% probability that the price of Bitcoin will be in that range, and a range of 0.9 indicates a location where the price of Bitcoin is likely to be 90%,” explained CryptoOnchain. .

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and business activity involves risk, and readers should do their own research when making a decision.