The Galaxy ETF predicts a 74% increase in the price of Bitcoin in the first year after its launch
The price of Bitcoin (BTC) will increase 74.1% in the first year after its launch in the United States, according to estimates of crypto investment firm Galaxy Digital.
In an Oct. 24 blog post, Galaxy Digital Research Associate Charles Yu estimated the total addressable market size for Bitcoin ETFs at $14.4 trillion in the first year since launch. The 74% figure was obtained by assessing the price impact the fund could have on its exposure to Bitcoin ETF products using gold ETFs as an underlying.
According to Yu's estimates, Bitcoin's price will rise 6.2% after the ETF's launch before slowing to a steady 3.7% monthly increase over 12 months.
Yu used Bitcoin price data from September 30, but found a 74.1% increase in Bitcoin's current price to $59,200.
Marcus Thielen, head of research at digital asset financial services firm Matrixport, reached a similar figure in an Oct. 19 post. Bitcoin could rise between $42,000 and $56,000 if BlackRock's spot Bitcoin ETF application is approved.
The U.S. Bitcoin ETFs market size is predicted to reach $26.5 trillion in the second year of launch and $39.6 trillion after the third year.
Related: BlackRock's Bitcoin ETF: How It Works, Its Benefits and Opportunities
Yu acknowledged that a delay or ban on Bitcoin ETFs would affect his price forecast.
However, he said the estimates were still conservative and did not factor in “secondary effects” from the position allowed by the Bitcoin ETF.
“In the near term, we expect that other international/global markets will follow the US in offering similar Bitcoin ETF offerings to more investors,” Yu wrote.
“2024 could be a big year for Bitcoin,” he added, citing ETF earnings, the April 2024 bitcoin halving and “the possibility that rates will peak or rise in the near term.”
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