The ‘most reliable’ Bitcoin price signal hints at the 2026 bull run

Bitcoin (BTC) traders have highlighted several signs predicting a “big” price increase. Still, according to onchain data, BTC price recovery may be delayed as market participants take a more defensive stance.

Main Receptors:

After confirmation of a similar key bullish cross in 2021, Bitcoin surged 600 percent.

Onchain data points to persistent sell-side pressure, suggesting BTC price recovery may take time.

BTC bullish cross hints that the bull will run ahead

Analyst Coinvo Trading has observed a bullish cross pattern involving the US 10-year Treasury yield (US10Y) and China's 10-year government bond yield (CN10Y) along with the Stochastic RSI on Bitcoin's weekly chart.

Related: Bitcoin investor sentiment cools amid US shutdown fears, Fed policy falters

This is “Bitcoin's most accurate bull run signal” and has only happened four other times in the past, resulting in massive price rallies, Coinvo Trading said in a recent post on X.

The US10Y and CN10Y Stoch RSI last crossed on It was in October 2020, which marked the start of BTC's 600% rally to an all-time high of $69,000 in 2021.

Fellow analyst Matthew Hyland predicts a potential BTC price breakout based on the performance of the US Dollar Strength Index (DXY).

As seen in 2017 and 2022, expect the BTC/USD pair to rally below the 96 DXY edge.

Meanwhile, gold has hit a record high above $5,000, while the gap between the two assets widens, while bitcoin remains in range.

Investors shouldn't worry about this divergence, Swan analysts said, but gold often moves first, with bitcoin moving sideways for months before it “forces” it.

The Bitcoin market remains “broken.”

Bitcoin's ability to sustain a sustained recovery above key levels may be limited by a lack of buyers.

The Bitcoin Spot Cumulative Volume Delta (CVD) metric, an indicator that measures the net difference between buying and selling, has turned sharply negative, confirming a shift to sell-side dominance.

The measure fell last week to -$194.2 million from $54.2 million a week ago, reflecting “trader behavior is meaningfully risk-on, and reflects confidence in recent price increases,” Glassnode said in its latest weekly market pressure report.

Meanwhile, spot Bitcoin ETF weekly net flows reversed from $1.6 billion inflows to $1.7 billion inflows, citing “cooling institutional demand and increasing near-term bearish pressure,” the onchain data provider said:

“In general, market conditions are more defensive, with continued sell-side pressure and increased demand suggesting that the market is weak.”

As Cointelegraph reports, Bitcoin may be in for an extended period of consolidation, citing strong overhang resistance, selling pressure from spot BTC ETFs, and growing macroeconomic uncertainty.