The real reason Bitcoin is now lagging behind gold

Analysts say geopolitical concerns and policy uncertainty are pushing investors into metals, while bitcoin remains a risk asset.

As Bitcoin (BTC) trades sideways, gold and silver continue to climb until December 2025, showing a clear divide in how investors are positioned between safe and risky assets.

The difference reflects a major shift in how the market works, with investors choosing precious metals when things are uncertain, while Bitcoin is experiencing low activity and weak demand.

Secure assets such as Bitcoin stores will be pulled forward

A recent opinion from Japan's XWIN Research described the current setup as a long-term consolidation phase for Bitcoin after a high-level correction.

For three months, BTC has remained mostly range-bound as gold and silver prices rose. XWIN analysts attribute this gap to geopolitical tensions, policy uncertainty and the expectation of low interest rates, which typically favor precious metals with long-term institutional interest.

Silver also occasionally outperformed gold, helped by supply and strong speculative positioning. Meanwhile, according to XWIN, the price of Bitcoin continues to trade as a high-volatility risk asset rather than a defensive store, and in risk-free environments, funds often first rotate into gold and government bonds, leaving BTC as a secondary choice rather than a primary hedge.

On-chain data adds weight to this narrative, with CryptoQuant figures cited by XWIN showing that Bitcoin demand is turning negative. It means that interest in new purchases has not kept pace with supply, even when prices have risen. Additionally, an extended period of the short-term holder's SOPR below 1 suggests that many recent buyers are selling at a loss or close, putting pressure on the price.

That weakness is consistent with a broader freeze in network activity. Analyst Crypto Onchain recently reported that Bitcoin's 30-day average active addresses dropped to 807,000, the lowest level this year. Additionally, data from Binance's exchange shows both deposits and withdrawals sliding to similar lows. According to the market watcher, long-term carriers are not in a rush to sell, but bullish stocks have stalled the market.

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Price action, ETFs and the long-term view

Bitcoin's muted performance comes after a rough end to the year. According to CryptoPotato, BTC is heading for its weakest fourth quarter since 2018, down nearly 22%, with its price trading between $85,000 and $90,000. However, not all analysts view the consolidation as entirely negative. Crazzyblockk argued that spot Bitcoin ETF flows still provide underlying support. Using an EFF flow effect model, they show that Bitcoin's current price is sitting close to its fair value of roughly $88,000, a slight upside from the start of the year.

This view contrasts with sentiment around the metal, fueled by figures such as Peter Schiff, who celebrated gold's break above $4,400 and questioned whether $5,000 gold would be reached before a major bitcoin crash. But despite such debates, the data tells a simpler story: gold and silver have benefited from steady asset demand, while bitcoin has had to wait for stronger participation before its next major move.