The ‘rumor mill’ will go into overdrive for tomorrow’s Bitcoin ETF adoption
Speculation that the SEC is poised to approve a Bitcoin (BTC) exchange-traded fund (ETF) on Friday has reached fever pitch on social media.
A tweet from Greyscale's legal chief, in addition to a widely shared tweet from the reporter saying they were “filling out some forms,” fueled speculation that approval could come as soon as next day.
However, many analysts expect potential approvals next week.
In a Jan. 4 post for X (formerly Twitter), TechCrunch reporter Jacqueline Melink quoted sources “very close to the matter” as saying that more of the EFF will be approved and “expecting something tomorrow.”
A bitcoin spot ETF is about to be approved by the SEC for *several* company filings, sources close to the matter say.
— Jacquelyn Melinek (@jacqmelinek) January 4, 2024
Others took particular interest in a cryptic tweet from Greyscale's chief legal officer saying they were “filling out some forms” since it was posted, garnering 1.9 million views and 6,700 likes.
Meanwhile, the hashtag #BTCETF and the term “Bitcoin ETFs” are currently trending on Twitter, and Bitcoin's price has been on a downward trend since January 3, 2010, up 3.4% in the last 24 hours, according to TradingView data.
BITCOIN ETF TOMORROW??
— DustyBC Crypto (@TheDustyBC) January 5, 2024
“The rumor mill is going full steam ahead,” said trader Scott Melkor in response to back and forth speculation on social media.
Analysts are throwing cold water on the rumor.
However, Bloomberg EFF analyst James Seifert described much of the speculation surrounding the Jan. 5 approval as “hype” and said he still expects approval to come between Jan. 8 and Jan. 10.
Similarly, attorney and business litigator Joe Carlassare said the public comment period for many ETF applications doesn't close until midnight on Jan. 5. In his view, he said, this makes it “highly unlikely” that approval will arrive anytime soon. Early next week.
Eric Balchunas, senior Bloomberg ETF analyst, explained that the SEC is currently issuing final comments and that issuers will soon file their final Forms 19b-4 and S-1.
The SEC is issuing final comments as we speak, and issuers will soon file 19b-4s and S-1s. So this means it's as close to “done” as we can get, but as far as I know, there's no official approval.
— Eric Balchunas (@EricBalchunas) January 4, 2024
Both forms must be approved by the SEC before an ETF can begin trading, although an approved Form 19b-4 is required for a Bitcoin ETF to be effective.
Related: Spot Bitcoin ETF Could Be Rejected If SEC Wants ‘More Time' – Analyst
Scott Johnson, general partner at VB Capital, said he was “still skeptical” that ETF approval would be granted before next week.
“Unless there is 19b-4 [applications] They are all transparent and the SEC doesn't care to approve them all at once (sounds like a stretch?),” Johnson wrote.
There are 14 issuers vying for a spot on a Bitcoin ETF, including BlackRock, Valkyrie, ARK Invest/21 Shares, Bitwise and Fidelity.
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