The SEC has a 3%-14% chance of succeeding in Ripple’s appeal, say legal experts
The chances of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission winning its appeal against Ripple are slim, according to attorney Bill Morgan, who is following the case closely.
In a post on X (formerly Twitter), Morgan argued that there was no clear error other than that “at least two of Ripple's favors with respect to the sale of ODL do not meet the Hawaii test.”
I see no clear appellate error regarding the sale of ODL that does not meet at least two prongs of the Hawaii test against Ripple's favor. The SEC's chances of success on appeal are slim and I'm feeling generous today so I'll give it a 3% chance of success on appeal https://t.co/FRIFbqzmVA
— Bill Morgan (@Belisarius2020) October 22, 2023
Morgan's prediction came on the heels of another statistic shared by prominent attorney Jeremy Hogan, who shared government data on appeal success rates in various types of cases. The data indicates that the SEC has a 14.2% chance of winning an appeal against Ripple.
The SEC fought a protracted court battle with Ripple for nearly three years before a judge ruled that the sale of XRP on the crypto exchange did not violate securities laws. The ruling comes as a major victory for Ripple, which lost significant business during the SEC lawsuit in the US.
The SEC also lost an appeal of Judge Annalisa Torres' Oct. 4 ruling that the securities regulator failed to meet its burden to show there were regulatory legal questions or differences of opinion in its decision.
Related: Lawyers argue Ripple case after SEC appeal rejected
Later on October 19, the SEC dismissed all charges against Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse and executive Chris Larson, providing another major victory for Ripple and its executives.
Today was a better day. Ripple: 3 seconds: 0
More importantly, Chris and I (absent fraud or misrepresentations) have been targeted by the SEC to personally damage us and the company many people have worked so hard to build more than one… https://t.co/YsQxewFnj9
— Brad Garlinghouse (@bgarlinghouse) October 19, 2023
Ripple's chief legal officer, Stuart Alderotti, called the SEC's move a “handover,” while Ripple called the SEC's move “an amazing speech” in its official statement.
Morgan said the SEC had dismissed the rest of the lawsuit, saying there would be no trial next year, and predicted the court would issue a “final judgment (probably)” sometime next year.
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