The US crypto industry expects transparency, success.

Donald Trump is predicted to win the November 5 presidential election. After capturing the key swing states of North Carolina and Georgia, which he lost in 2020, several sources, including The Hill and Decision Desk HQ, declared Trump the winner.

The New York Times projects that Trump has a more than 95% chance of winning 306 Electoral College votes. CNN has Trump “on the brink of victory” as the former president and likely president-elect addresses supporters in Florida.

At the time of publication, The Associated Press had Trump with 267 Electoral College votes, just three short of the 270 needed to secure the presidency.

Primary challenger Vice President Kamala Harris is lagging behind in key swing states such as Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan.

While on the campaign trail, Trump made various promises to the crypto community. The Securities and Exchange Commission has vowed to fire Chairman Gary Gensler “on day one,” to promote Bitcoin (BTC) mining in the U.S., to create a strategic Bitcoin reserve, to prevent the creation of a central bank digital currency (CBDC), and to commute his sentence. Crypto advocate Ross Ulbright, among other things.

Because of these promises, many in the crypto industry have high hopes for the incoming president, while others caution the public to be cautious and not get their hopes up too much.

Only time will tell how far President-elect Trump's agenda will ultimately be implemented.

Fire truck Gensler

Trump promised to remove Gensler from the SEC on his first day in office.

Gensler was appointed SEC Chairman in 2021 by current President Joe Biden. During his tenure, he led the SEC, which prosecuted several prominent crypto exchanges and projects.

The SEC has brought enforcement actions against North America's largest exchange, Coinbase, as well as decentralized exchange Uniswap, blockchain-based video streaming company Lbry, Web3 video game developer Inexorable and MetaMask wallet developer Consensys, among others.

In each case, the SEC said cryptocurrencies are often legal securities and their developers must register the coins with the SEC.

Many crypto businesses and users have rejected this interpretation of the securities law, and Trump has vowed to remove Gensler as a result.

Gensler's term expires in April 2025. At this point, Trump may replace Gensler with someone more friendly to the crypto industry. On day one, he could remove Gensler “for cause,” although whether Gensler's role as chairman is “for cause” is up for debate.

Another scenario that could play out is for Gensler to resign, barring the need to fire Trump.

Free Ross Ulbricht

Trump has promised to commute Ulbricht's sentence on Day One, possibly allowing him to walk free.

Ulbricht was the creator of Silk Road, which allowed any user to sell anything they wanted in exchange for Bitcoin, including illegal goods like unregistered guns and drugs. Silk Road generated an estimated $230 million in sales during its lifetime, according to a report from Ars Technica.

Ulbright was arrested in 2013 and is currently serving two life sentences and 40 years in prison, with the possibility of parole, for his role in building the Silk Road. Proponents say the sentence is too harsh for a web designer who only facilitated the drug trade and did not commit any violence.

Trump could commute the sentence, free him immediately, or simply reduce the sentence to something less than life without parole.

Support American Bitcoin mining

Trump has pledged to encourage bitcoin mining in the United States, saying he wants “the rest of Bitcoin to be made in America.”

Although the incoming president did not provide details on how he would accomplish this goal, some in the crypto community considered Trump's victory bullish due to his pro-mining stance.

For example, Samson Mou, CEO of Bitcoin financial technology company Jan3, said on June 13 that Trump's mining would “push everything forward.”

Bitcoin mining is sometimes opposed by environmental groups because of its large carbon footprint. However, the pro-mining president can use his position to prevent the implementation of new environmental regulations on Bitcoin mining.

Create a systematic Bitcoin collection

Another of Trump's crypto-related promises is to create a “strategic bitcoin reserve” by ordering law enforcement agencies to stop selling bitcoins seized from criminal enterprises. Proponents of this policy say that bitcoin is a valuable reserve asset and holding it will eventually help the US pay off its national debt.

U.S. Sen. Cynthia Lammis of Wyoming introduced a bill in July to create such a reserve. But so far the bill has not been approved.

Protect CBDC

Trump has promised to ensure that no central bank digital currency or government-run blockchain payment system will be created. CBCCs use blockchains similar to those used by private cryptocurrencies, except these networks are not controlled by governments.

The crypto industry is divided on whether CBCCs are good or useful, with some seeing them as an improvement over slow and cumbersome banking, while others see them as dystopian systems that eliminate privacy.

Regardless, Trump has promised to prevent the US from having an official digital dollar, which at least some crypto users see as positive.

Not everyone is a believer

While Trump has made a lot of promises to crypto users and the industry as a whole, some in the industry don't believe he'll follow through on them, or even that it's possible.

For example, in response to Trump's proposal that he wants the rest of Bitcoin to be made in the US, Shapeshift founder Eric Voorhees said on June 13 that this view is “absurd nationalistic/protectionist nonsense, betraying both a lack of understanding of Bitcoin.” as well as a lack of broad understanding of economics”.

In addition, wallet founder Jameson Loup criticized Trump's plan for a systematic Bitcoin stockpile, saying that half of the BTC seized by law enforcement belonged to the Bitfinex exchange and therefore should be returned to it.