The US presidential race is close to $4 billion on Election Day
Update Nov 5 at 9:50 UTC: Revised to clarify that Robinhood said he traded 200 million contracts, not $200 million.
Bettors are all-in on the presidential election of the United States, trading volumes of about 4 billion dollars in high prediction markets as voters flock to the polls on November 5, according to a Cointelegraph analysis.
Web3's native Polymarket has emerged as a major political betting platform. The presidential race saw more than $3.3 billion spent in the US despite a ban, according to the Polymarket website.
But fledgling US betting platforms – including Kalshi, Robinhood and Interactive Brokers – have quickly gained traction since launching in October.
Together, they have attracted more than $500 million to the presidential election betting markets, according to the apps' websites.
Republican nominee Donald Trump leads Harris in the top polls.
In the year As of publication on Nov. 5, Polymarket pegged Trump's odds at nearly 62 percent. Kalshi and Interactive Brokers put it at 58%, according to the apps' websites.
Source: Polymarket
Election betting markets allow users to buy contracts with binary payout structures tied to the outcomes of political events.
They cover everything from the US presidential race to Senate campaigns, cabinet appointments and the possible resignation of New York City Mayor Eric Adams.
Among the most popular contracts are bets on the popular vote and the margin of victory of the winning candidate.
In total, those contracts pulled in about $1 billion in trading activity on the platforms, according to a Cointelegraph analysis of public data.
Source: Kalshi
Hot competition
On October 7, Kalshi listed terms for betting on US election results after winning a landmark court battle in September.
This was the first time an election prediction market was allowed to operate in the US and paved the way for others to enter the fray.
Since then, the competition has heated up.
On October 28, cryptocurrency and stock trading platform Robinhood introduced contracts for certain users to bet on the outcome of the presidential election.
As he stated on November 5 on the X platform, he has already traded 200 million contracts during the presidential race.
Interactive brokers also opened election betting markets in October. Her presidential campaign pulled in about $50 million.
On October 28, Kalshi started making deposits in the USD Coin (USDC) stablecoin. In the year On November 5, USDC deposits from the blockchain network Polygon increased, Kalshi said on X.
Polymarket Rules Governing Fees for the 2024 US Presidential Election Prediction Market. Source: Polymarket
Fears of deception
In October, Polymarket came under fire after several investigations claimed that 30% of US presidential election bets came from money laundering.
Meanwhile, five big Polymarket investors are said to have bought more than half of the stocks vying for a Trump victory, according to anonymous political trader Domer.
The payout for winning Polymarket presidential contenders could be delayed until Jan. 20, 2025, unless The Associated Press, Fox and NBC agree on a clear winner.
In September, Kalshi won against the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) challenging the regulator's decision not to list political event contracts.
The CFTC said election prediction markets like Kalshi's risk the accuracy of polls, but industry analysts say they often capture public sentiment more accurately than polls.
“Event contract markets are a valuable public good with no evidence of significant manipulation or widespread use for any nefarious purposes that the commission suggests,” said Harry Crane, a professor of statistics at Rutgers University. CFTC
In August, financial information and news service Bloomberg LP added polling data from Polymarket to the terminal.
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