Bitcoin (BTC) heads into April's monthly close as BTC price action drops to 10-day lows.
After a week of consecutive selling during Wall Street trading hours, the largest cryptocurrency continues to tread water at significant resistance levels.
Macro and geopolitical uncertainty add to what has been a strong mix for Bitcoin bulls this month – can they turn things around?
April 2024 is just a few days away from the worst month for Bitcoin.
The immediate landscape remains problematic – the gap between spot prices and new all-time highs is huge, and while the price range is only around $12,000, such levels look very close.
Market observers therefore look the other way – pressure on key support areas should be reduced.
Optimists argue that BTC/USD remains calm, meanwhile, and that the timing will see a continuation of the bull market of the kind seen in Q1.
The comeback could be helped by a dose of déjà vu this week – less than four months after the United States, Hong Kong is set to launch its own spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs).
Cointelegraph looks at these key topics and more in our weekly list of BTC prices.
The weekly close provided some relief for battered Bitcoin traders as BTC/USD continued to slide into the Asian session.
BTC/USD 1-Hour Chart. Source: TradingView
The pair hit its lowest level since April 19, hitting lows of $61,943 on Bitstamp, according to data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView.
A week ago, relief rose to $65,000 amid repeated selling pressure at Wall Street's open, which commentators including prominent trader Skew said were powered by American automated trading algorithms.
“I see potential for longer crabbing between $67K-$58K,” continued a new analysis on X on April 29.
Bears have so far been unable to sustain the market below $60,000 for long. At current levels around $62,000, April is on track to deliver losses of more than 12 percent.
Data from tracking CoinGlass confirms this would make it Bitcoin's worst performing month since November 2022 – the height of the recent bear market.
Regardless of where the skew ends, the monthly close continues to focus on a key new BTC price trend in its own right.
“1M close in 2 days, following that close monthly and weekly open will be critical levels,” he wrote, calling the one-month timeframe “not bad at all” and describing $58,000 as support.
BTC/USD Chart. Source: Skew
Dramatic yen volatility greets FOMC week
Significant macroeconomic events continue to emerge this week with the US Federal Reserve's next interest rate decision.
Markets do not expect any surprises from the latest meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), while recent macro data releases have worried the risk-averse bulls. Lower rates may come much later than expected at the beginning of the year, they fear, according to estimates from the CME Group's FedWatch tool.
Fed Funds Opportunities (Snapshot). Source: CME Group
“We have a big week ahead of us,” summarized trading input Kobeisi's letter on the X Weekly Macro View thread.
“After a full month of hot inflation, we finally get the Fed's updated views.”
It's not just the FOMC; The week's macro events coincide with comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell on May 1, followed by jobless claims and unemployment data on May 2 and 3, respectively.
For Bitcoin and risk assets, however, all may not be so bad — unless the outlook turns to a significant economic downturn.
“The worst-case scenario could lead to a series of bad spells for risk assets and a bet on the economy,” Skew said of the outlook.
“Maybe look at sweeping around $50K to $46K. Don't look until the HTF closes below $58k and the narrative for the cause is created.
USD/JPY 4-Hour Chart. Source: TradingView
Some signs of stress are evident this week. The US saw a fresh regional bank collapse, while in Japan, the yen hit its lowest level against the dollar since 1990 in flash volatility, passing 160 before rebounding.
Hong Kong Bitcoin ETFs to Launch
Sticking to Asia, the coming week will mark a big moment in the institutional adoption of Bitcoin.
Just like the US in January, Hong Kong is set to open the doors to Bitcoin ETFs — and the copycat interest and price impact is already building.
Citing a 2022 report from crypto exchange Huobi, Willy Woo, creator of on-chain statistics platform Woobull, underlined how strong demand could be for spot ETF products.
“In terms of number of users, the Asian market is larger than the US and European markets,” said X's post body.
In its first report on the upcoming release, blockchain research and consulting group Beth Chimera pegged the potential revenue at $25 billion.
“The huge capital capacity could add to liquidity and stabilize bitcoin prices,” he wrote on X.
“It will also set a precedent for other Asian markets as it may influence further regulatory adjustments for crypto.”
Chimera House indicated that the participation of investors from mainland China – which represents a key shift in a country that has repeatedly tried to curb the crypto movement – could be “limited” due to regulatory hurdles.
“While the introduction of a Bitcoin ETF in Hong Kong is a significant development, its success and impact on the broader market will depend on the regulatory environment, investor sentiment and macroeconomic factors affecting cryptocurrency valuations,” he concluded.
Key BTC price support lines are ready for retesting.
When Bitcoin slows down to significant support levels – among them, $ 60,000 and $ 58,000 – a trend, in particular, begins to stand out as a line in the sand.
As Cointelegraph reports, the overall cost base of Bitcoin short-term holders (STHs) is now of interest to analysts.
This group of investors corresponds to those who have held a unit of BTC for a maximum of 155 days, which is essentially the speculative end of the investor spectrum.
STH's confirmed price, currently below $59,800, creates a key level to watch now. Throughout the recovery from the 2022 bear market low, it served as support, breaking the pattern only briefly in September 2023.
“Will it stay as a support this time?” Philip Swift, creator of the on-chain information platform, was asked to look at Bitcoin.
Bitcoin STH realized price chart. Source: Philip Swift
Two medium-term exponential moving averages, or EMAs, known as “bull market support bands,” meanwhile, have lined up to provide damage control in the event of a deep retracement.
“A bull market support band is increasing in price as we continue to strengthen,” wrote noted trader Daan CryptoTrades in a recent post on the topic.
“This should provide good support if we are to touch it. In 2021 we ended up not needing to break our all-time high of 2017, but we took off before the team caught on.”
BTC/USD chart with bull market support band. Source: Daan Crypto Trades
Retail investors return to Bitcoin
Despite BTC's lack of price action, in an encouraging sign, interest from small retail investors is returning.
RELATED: Crypto trader sees best ‘altseason' since 2017 as Bitcoin price cools
As reported by Checkmate, an on-chain fraud detector at on-chain information platform Glassnode, wallets with less than 100 BTC are increasing their vulnerability.
Checonchain cited data from its own source that showed positive 30-day rolling wallet balances on April 8 for the first time since mid-January.
“Bitcoin retail holders, the ones that seem to be down, the ones that sell at the first sign of a correction…the sats that seem to be regrouping,” he concluded.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and business activity involves risk, and readers should do their own research when making a decision.
