There may be one last opportunity to buy BTC at ‘bargain’ prices – Rekt Capital
Bitcoin investors may only have a two-week window in which to buy bitcoin at “buy-in” prices before the pre-halving rally begins in February, Ysmudo's anonymous crypto trader Rect Capital said.
In a January 29 tweet posted to his 349,000 followers, X said that market moves around Bitcoin (BTC) typically occur in five phases, with the first three phases occurring before the decline.
Rect notes that in previous Bitcoin halvings, often months in advance, sharp declines have resulted in huge profits for investors, and 2024 will be no different.
#BTC
5 Half levels of Bitcoin
1. Pre-half time
In April 2024, there are 77 days until the Bitcoin halving
Historically, any deep reversals that occur during this orange period produce spectacular returns for many investors… pic.twitter.com/8JC8qX2IVm
— Rekt Capital (@rektcapital) January 29, 2024
Bitcoin's halving – currently scheduled for April – marks the halving of mining rewards for Bitcoin miners and is widely seen as a boost to BTC's value.
Noting that Bitcoin went through a roughly 18% retracement in January, Rekt said there is now a two-week window in which Bitcoin is expected to make another significant pullback.
“In general, any correction during this period represents one of the last bargain buying opportunities for Bitcoin in the pre-investment period.”
After this, Bitcoin tends to enter a “pre-public rally” called Rect, which is 60 days into its halving.
Depicted by the light blue box on the graph, short-term traders try to “sell the news” during the half-day period.
This “sell the news” event takes place one to three weeks after Rect cuts himself in what he calls a “pre-half retreat”. In the year In 2016, there was a 38% increase in prices in the weeks before it was halved, in 2020, there was a 20% decrease.
After a successful halving, Rect described a long and “boring” period of mostly sideways price action, where many investors would “shake off” the frustration of the price action that followed the halving. Historically, this has averaged 150 days.
Related: 11 Bitcoin Miners That May Not Be Profitable Half a Post – Cantor Fitzgerald
Finally, Rect states that Bitcoin has entered a “parabolic uptrend” phase, where after months of sideways volatility and general accumulation, Bitcoin will experience accelerated growth rates.
While Rect puts his thesis on the halving as the place for Bitcoin's price action, not all market participants are inclined to agree, with several experts saying the halving is emerging as a benchmark for judging price action.
“Are Halving Price Cycles Cruel?” Speaking at a panel titled According to Ralph Zaguri, chief investment officer of Swan Bitcoin, liquidity – and not liquidity – will play a crucial role in influencing bitcoin's price in 2024.
“It's really the flows that drive the market, so halving it doesn't have anything to do with the value of the translation,” Zagwari said.
Big questions: How can Bitcoin payments generate returns?
