This is what we are in the Bitcoin cycle based on history.

How close is the current Bitcoin cycle to the peak of the bull market? History suggests it may be closer than most people think.

Lead Glassnode analyst James Cheek presented a chart on Monday comparing the price action of Bitcoin (BTC) over the past three years to other Bitcoin (Bitcoin) price action after hitting their respective all-time highs.

Bitcoin cycle peak according to Glassnode

By the check measure, Bitcoin is effectively where it was back in December 2020. At that time, the asset surpassed its all-time high of $19,600 recorded on December 12, 2017 – a 36-month wait that reached $64,000 in just a few months.

Bitcoin is in a very similar position today: 35 months after peaking in April 2021, the asset rebounded to $74,000 in March 2024. It also experienced a short return last week as long-term holders took money off the table. Reminiscent of 20% to 30% price returns in previous cycles.

“The reason I use April is when the bear market sentiment starts, and the recovery time is measured from that point,” Cheek explained.

Bitcoin price hit a technical high of $69,000 in November 2021. However, Glassnode has already observed how Bitcoin's true “peak” from a behavioral perspective was in April 2021 when long-term holders began selling their coins in bulk, similar to previous cycles.

Earlier this month, the Czech Republic noted that this sale price is ongoing this year. at the time. Long-term holders were distributed 257,000 BTC coins per month, compared to 319,000 BTC and 836,000 BTC during the major market expansions in 2019 and 2021, respectively.

Where is Bitcoin headed next?

According to the analyst, even Bitcoin “shrimp” – investors with less than 1 BTC – are starting to sell their coins despite diligently hoarding and HODLing throughout the bear market.

However, Czech expressed confidence in the market's condition, calling it one of the “strongest” bull markets in history. “Chopsolidation and some bull slide is the result of weeks to months,” he tweeted on Sunday.

The analyst predicted that Bitcoin would top $250,000 per coin this year by the end of the current bull cycle.

The price of Bitcoin surged more than 4% on Monday to more than $70,000. Interestingly, outflows from ETFs did not appear to have slowed on Monday, reaching $350 million.