This is where analysts say Altseason will not return
Most of the altcoins are currently showing bearish patterns that suggest that the “altcoin” will not come when Bitcoin's dominance starts to rise again.
Main Receptors:
The Supertrend indicator is flashing “Sell”, which has previously caused a 66% decline in the total market value of the altcoin.
BTC's rising dominance and low altcoin season index show no signs of reversal.
The total market value of the Altcoin will change in the atmosphere
The ongoing selloff in altcoins is reflected in the correction of TOTAL2, the total market value of all cryptocurrencies excluding Bitcoin (BTC), that began on October 10.
TOTAL2 fell 32% to $1.19 trillion in December from an all-time high of $1.77 trillion reached on Oct. 10, according to data from TradingView.
This drop has seen TOTAL2 break above key support levels, the 50-week Exponential Moving Average (EMA) currently at $1.3 trillion, as shown in the chart below.
Related: Crypto altseason unlikely to win in 2026 as ‘blue-chip survivors': Analyst
The SuperTrend indicator flashed a bearish signal when it flipped from red to green and moved above the price in mid-November.
This indicator overlays the TOTAL2 trend on the chart, just like moving averages. It includes the average true range in the calculations, which helps traders identify market trends.
As shown in the chart below, the bear markets in 2018 and 2022 have seen declines of 85.5% and 66%, respectively.
Altcoins are still stuck in a downtrend as TOTAL2 consolidates in an ascending triangle.
“Altcoin market value is heading for a brutal fall,” wrote Merlijn The Trader in an X post analysis.
It will hold at the $1.15 trillion support for now, but “if this triangle is broken, we could see a -30% flow” to $830 billion, the analyst wrote, “Altsesson will not come until the resistance at $1.68 trillion is broken.”
“Alt season will never happen again,” CryptoDaddy wrote in a recent post on X, adding that going forward, money will be concentrated in a select few altcoins.
“There will never be another Rising Tides parade where everything is spinning.”
The unshakable supremacy of Bitcoin
By 2025, Bitcoin's (BTC) dominance over the cryptocurrency market has strengthened, leaving little room for altcoins.
Bitcoin dominance, which measures Bitcoin's market share relative to the overall crypto market, dropped to 57% in September after pushing 65% in June.
Since then, the index has been on an upward trajectory, recording record highs and record lows, as shown in the chart below.
At the time of publication, the dominance of BTC is at 59.27%, which indicates that it is still the season of Bitcoin.
This measure has not decreased below 50% since September 2023, indicating the earlier start of the Altseason.
This is a structural shift driven by institutional adoption after the approval and success of the Bitcoin ETF, which has attracted billions from traditional finance.
Institutions like BlackRock and Fidelity view altcoins as risky and less liquid, prioritizing adoption, relative stability and regulatory transparency.
It's not just buying strategically. BlackRock's IBIT Bitcoin ETF has attracted more than $25 billion in inflows by 2025, reinforcing corporate buyers' preference for BTC over altcoins.
“Bitcoin supremacy is printing at a higher rate, and the currency is spinning into BTC, not into BTC,” CyrilXBT said in an X-post, adding:
“Right now, BTC is still taking the class.”
It's still Bitcoin season.
Meanwhile, the key indicators that the crypto industry uses to define the upcoming altcoin season suggest that it is still nowhere to be seen.
According to Capriole Investments' Altcoin Speculation Index, in the last three months, the highest altcoins have exceeded BTC by only 21%, which shows the capital among altcoin owners.
In addition, Crypto Market Breadth, a measure of market strength, indicates that the altcoin market is very weak, with only 8% of all altcoins trading above their 50-day moving average.
Similarly, CoinMarketCap's Altcoin Season Index, which measures the top 100 cryptocurrencies over the past 90 days, is reading 18 points out of 100, leaning toward a more Bitcoin-dominated market, calling it “Bitcoin Season.” Altcoin period is when the percentage is above 75%.
“The CMC Altcoin Season Index is at a low,” said altcoin trader Money Ape in an analysis on X.
They call this ‘Bitcoin season'.
As Cointelegraph reports, Bitcoin has outperformed most of the crypto sector in recent months, indicating that capital and investment continue to favor Bitcoin.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and business activity involves risk, and readers should do their own research when making a decision. While we strive to provide accurate and up-to-date information, Cointelegraph does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness or reliability of any information in this article. This article may contain forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties. Cointelegraph shall not be liable for any loss or damage arising from reliance on this information.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and business activity involves risk, and readers should do their own research when making a decision. While we strive to provide accurate and up-to-date information, Cointelegraph does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness or reliability of any information in this article. This article may contain forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties. Cointelegraph shall not be liable for any loss or damage arising from reliance on this information.
