This year has been a drag but BTC is still up from a 400% cycle low.

Despite all the positive fundamentals, there is no doubt that 2025 is not ending well for the crypto markets.

Crypto markets are 13% lower than they were earlier this year, and Bitcoin is down roughly 8%. Total market capitalization fell below $3 trillion this week to its lowest level since April, but it's not all bad, analysts and experts say.

“I understand this year is a big one, but Bitcoin is up 468% in the two years before this year,” Eric Balchunas, senior ETF analyst at Bloomberg, said on Thursday. That's an annual return of 138 percent, eight times that of US stocks, he added.

Before adding, “That's a much larger return than normal. All that's happened this year is that you've returned a little bit of your profit.”

“It's like your ice cream sundae now has 55 cherries instead of 60. You're fine!”

I feel worse than a covid crash.

Futures trader Tony replied that long-term gains and current returns mean “a reversal is doing its job, not a bear market.”

“The ETF inflows have created the momentum, we are now returning to the long-term BTC growth curve. This is a healthy consolidation.”

The comments came in response to analyst ‘Ash Crypto', which has made markets feel worse this year than the Covid crash, the FTX meltdown, the LUNA crash, the SEC and Gary Gensler lawsuit, the Celsius and Blockchain losses and the 3AC collapse.

He listed a number of bullish fundamentals that have emerged this year, including pro-crypto policy in the US, all-time highs for stocks and commodities, institutional adoption and expansion of the global money supply.

“Market meetings begin when hopes are high, not when people are tired, frustrated and ready to give up.

In the year 2025 was brutal, “from tariffs to geopolitical tensions to policy confusion and everything in between, it was a pain in the face,” said crypto investor Jesse Eckel.

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However, he rejects the four-year cycle theory, stating that 2026 is structurally contradictory.

“They want economic growth and pour as much gasoline on the fire as possible. It's not even 2026, and we've already received three rate cuts, QT is over, balance sheet expansion and rate cuts,” he added, adding that it will be a five-year cycle.

Don't panic and underestimate

A look at Bitcoin's year-to-date chart shows that it's still on strong growth. BTC is still double the price it was trading at on this day two years ago and over 400% higher than it was in December 2022.

However, the asset continued to weaken in the short term and was trading around $87,000 at press time, down 31% from its all-time high, but up 2.3% after the Bank of Japan raised rates on Friday morning.

Institutions buying #Bitcoin

🔥Bitcoin drops $46,000… pic.twitter.com/trFRiNejst

— Jason Pizzino 🌞 (@jasonpizzino) December 18, 2025