Three analysts who believe Bitcoin will fall after the reduction

Bitcoin's halving, a pivotal event poised to redefine market dynamics, looms on the horizon. This event, scheduled around April 20, will reduce the mining reward for a Bitcoin (BTC) block from 6.25 to 3.125 BTC.

Analysts such as Arthur Hayes, Benjamin Cowen, and Peter Brandt predict that Bitcoin's price may be on the verge of halving.

Bitcoin Crashes After Decline: Analysts Weigh In

Arthur Hayes, an experienced voice in the crypto sphere, offers a complex view of the Bitcoin halving. Despite the general optimism, he predicts a market collapse.

“The halving narrative is positive for crypto prices. When most market participants agree on a certain outcome, the opposite often happens. This is why I believe the value of Bitcoin and crypto in general will halve,” Hayes explained.

Read more: Bitcoin Half Cycles and Investment Strategies: What You Need to Know

Hayes also highlights the broader economic background. A tight dollar exchange rate and the introduction of QT by the Federal Reserve will reduce the money supply.

Consequently, a “dangerous period for risk-adjusted assets” awaits at the end of April. However, after May 1, following the Federal Reserve meeting, the market is forecast to pick up due to the expected injection of liquidity.

“I'll be in a no-trade zone from now until May 1. I hope to be back in May with some dry powder ready to deploy to start the bull market in earnest,” Hayes said.

Another crypto analyst, Benjamin Cowen, agrees with the cautious view. It draws parallels between the halving and the 20% market correction following spot-Bitcoin ETF approvals in January.

“Usually these patterns don't exactly repeat themselves, but if the same thing happens again, it's just showing up here,” Cowen said.

Veteran analyst Peter Brandt supports Cowen's view, acknowledging recurring patterns in bitcoin bull markets.

Read more: Bitcoin price prediction for 2024/2025/2030

This sentiment is consistent with Monday's ETF flow data, which showed a negative trend despite the Bitcoin price reaching $72,000. For example, GBTC had outflows of $303.3 million, contributing to negative ETF inflows of $223.8 million. BlackRock's IBIT, however, reported just $21.3 million in revenue.

This information may indicate broader market hesitancy or profit-taking behavior.

Furthermore, the halving will put pressure on Bitcoin miners. When the reward is halved, miners' income or hash value may decrease. Therefore, they may use the sale of some bitcoin stock to cover operating costs.