Three Binance Charts Could Be Hints About Bitcoin’s Next Move
The next big move for Bitcoin (BTC) may hinge on changes in Binance's exchange flows and derivatives activity.
Onchain data from the largest cryptocurrency exchange shows a current cooling of whale stocks, an increase in BTC outflows and an increase in its future dominance, which may influence the next Bitcoin price.
Bitcoin's wave activity will slow down after the February spike
The whale ratio on Binance, the 10 largest bitcoin exchange that measures revenue relative to total currency deposits, rose above 0.60 in early February, indicating strong selling by whales.
Since then, the 14-day moving average has moved closer to 0.45, seen at the 2024 and 2025 levels. The decline in large inflows indicates that few major sell-side transfers are entering Binance in the current range.
It is also important to pay attention to the price action during this period. Bitcoin stabilized in the 65,000-$72,000 range after February's collapse rather than extending the fall.
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Meanwhile, crypto analyst CW suggests that some whales may still accumulate. Bitcoin's Cumulative Volume Delta (CVD) indicator shows persistent buying during the recent consolidation, suggesting that large participants may be taking supply as price moves sideways.
CVD tracks the net difference between the buying and selling of a distressed market. When the price moves sideways, higher readings may indicate that large participants are taking supply without causing the price to accelerate too quickly.
BTC will rise on Binance as futures dominate the spot trade
The exchange flow on Binance has also changed since mid-February. Total net flow tracks the difference between coins entering and leaving exchanges.
The 14-day moving average dipped deeper into negative territory at -1,151 BTC on March 11, signaling a continuing wave of Bitcoin withdrawals from the platform. This indicates that more BTC is leaving the exchange, immediately reducing the supply for sale.
Derivatives activity is spread along these flows. According to crypto analyst Martin, the futures-to-spot trading volume on Binance has risen to approximately 5.3, the highest level since October 2023, meaning futures markets have more than five times the spot volume.
High futures activity may indicate that traders are taking advantage of BTC's price volatility and are using leverage.
Meanwhile, Coinbase's research points to improving demand for space. The cost-to-earnings ratio (SOPR) for short-term holders has indicated an upward trend since late February.
RELATED: Bitcoin Faces ‘Extremely Volatile' As Bulls Eyes Return To $80K By Month's End
According to the exchange, the recovery of short-term SOPR above 0 on both Bitcoin and Ether (ETH) indicates that recent demand has been strong enough to absorb selling pressure from new traders. This has helped stabilize the price of BTC in the current range.
These factors highlight the rationale behind Bitcoin's current level of consolidation, with BTC consolidating around the $70,000 level as support.
But failure to break the $72,000 resistance in the next few days or weeks could prove a bull trap and bring the next leg down if history repeats itself.
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