Three Reasons Bitcoin’s Real Breakout Began to $107K
Bitcoin (BTC) may take $100,000 as support and rally to $107,000 in the coming days, based on a combination of supportive technical and fundamental parameters.
Main Receptors:
Bitcoin's breakout is being supported by bullish techniques and fading selling pressure is increasing.
Macro signals are skewed, with liquidity widening and divergence between BTC and gold.
Ascending triangle, bullish cross increases the chances of BTC support
Bitcoin confirmed its opening from a multi-week ascending triangle earlier this week and moved into a textbook post-breakout retest phase.
After pushing above the upper limit of the pattern around $95,000, BTC pulled back to test the previous resistance as support before moving higher.
Holding this retracement level would keep the “true breakout” structure intact and maintain the pattern's measured target near $107,000, adding the triangle's top height to the opening point in February.
At the same time, Bitcoin's daily chart approached a possible bullish crossover between the 20-day (green) and 50-day (red) exponential moving averages (EMAs).
The last time BTC posted a similar bullish cross, the price of BTC rose by approximately 17% in the following month, reinforcing the continuation of the trend if the signal is confirmed.
Long-term holders of Bitcoin will reduce the sale
Bitcoin's crash gained credibility as selling pressure from long-term holders faded.
Data tracking UTXOs coins issued by OG Bitcoin holders have been dormant for more than five years, showing that the distribution to local highs has materially decreased in recent times.
In the year In January, the 90-day moving average was close to 2,300 BTC earlier in the cycle, but later declined to the 1,000 BTC level, suggesting a few coins hit the market.
Earlier in the rally, OG selling outperformed the previous bull market, reflecting an unusually attractive exit window created by demand for spot ETFs, deep liquidity and institutional participation.
“This suggests that the OGs have reduced their sales,” said a DarkFrost analyst.
Their sales pressure, which can be intense at times, has clearly decreased and the current trend seems to be towards retention rather than distribution.
The slowdown in OG sales coincided with the largest net bitcoin outflow since December 2024.
Negative Bitcoin-Gold Correlation: Bullish for BTC?
Another macro signal aligned with the crash thesis came from Bitcoin's historical relationship with gold.
In the past, BTC's correlation with gold has turned negative, with Bitcoin rising an average of 56% over a roughly two-month period. The only exception in May 2021 was a dramatic shock, including the Chinese mine raids and forced disappearances.
In the year From 2026, the setup appears more favorable, supported by increased global liquidity and the end of the Federal Reserve's quantitative tightening.
Related: Bitcoin ‘groove' to return despite gold, Nasdaq spotlight: Arthur Hayes
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