Top monthly latest – 5 things to know in Bitcoin this week

Bitcoin (BTC) starts the new week, month and quarter of 2024 with several new records – can the bull market continue?

BTC price action made history on March 31 as the first quarter of 2024 ended at its highest close to date.

The old objection is not to give up without a fight; However, the war between buyers and sellers is keeping the all-time highs on the table since 2021.

Therefore, the upside remains elusive, with Bitcoin needing a push towards $74,000 to generate more sell-side liquidity of late.

The stage is set for potentially volatile moves as Q2 begins.

Added to the mix is ​​a classic macroeconomic data element, nonfarm payrolls from the United States over the weekend.

There will be a new comment from former Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell. Last week, Bitcoin appeared to respond positively to Powell's prospect of a rate cut in 2024.

While bitcoin itself has been around for a long time, seasoned traders are increasingly making profits, countering the flow of institutional capital from exchange-traded funds (ETFs).

Cointelegraph looks at these issues and others that could influence BTC price action in the coming days in a weekly summary.

BTC price clinch closes weekly, monthly, quarterly.

Bitcoin – for all intents and purposes – was given to the bulls at the end of Q1.

Below $70,300, March 31 weekly, monthly and quarterly closes became the highest in history.

A predictable rebirth followed; However, data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView indicate a low of $68,900 in the coming hours.

In the short-term, BTC/USD will therefore remain within the familiar range from last month. $69,000 – the old all-time high from 2021 – continues to act as a market focus.

Caution is needed until clear trend signals emerge for popular trader Skew.

In one of his recent articles on X, he wrote, “To be more observant here before entering a place.”

“So far, the 4H trend is still intact, the market needs to continue this with enough buying and bidding for stocks.”

Skew pointed to the first Wall Street open as significant, indicating a return to ETF flows.

“The biggest HTF level right now is $69K,” he confirmed of the top timeframes alongside a chart.

“Monthly/weekly openings will be important later.”

Prominent trader and analyst Rect Capital was more positive about the closing of the candle.

Bitcoin, as he argued, can easily challenge the top of its range in order to confirm that it is long-term support before using it as a basis for fresh upside.

“Bitcoin has started the process of extinction,” he told X followers on April 1.

“A weekly close above the range high is the 1st step. And if $BTC has to break into RH to successfully test as new support before continuing higher… this is the 2nd step to fully confirm the split.

For MNTrading founder and CEO Michael Van de Pop, the short-term trend is around two clear lines in the sand: $67,000 and $71,700.

“If one of the two happens, maybe a direction will be chosen,” he predicted.

I think we'll have one last ATH challenge before it halves.

Powell, Unemployment Leads US Macro Diary.

A fresh appearance from Fed Chair Powell will set the tone for the upcoming US macro week.

Powell will deliver prepared remarks on April 3, along with several other top federal officials later in the week.

Risky assets around longer-term economic policy continue to be bullish, with some interest rate cuts heading into 2024 all but guaranteed.

Last week, Powell said that even the latest “warm” inflation reports should not establish an overly hawkish stance on the economy and that the Fed would take a more balanced approach to tapering.

This week's data, meanwhile, focused on non-farm payrolls – a release that has recently contributed to BTC price volatility – due on April 5.

“US employment data on Friday. And like previous US data points / FOMC… there may be an opportunity to lift some cheap tokens ahead,” financial analyst Tedtalksmacro commented in an X post for the coming week.

“Currently the market is on par with the Fed at 3 rates at the end of the year. As with inflation data, employment data will move the markets with any significant losses.”

Tedtalksmacro explained that “weak” jobs numbers would raise the odds of an early rate cut and fuel risk-asset intensity.

“It's all about the jobs data and we'll officially start the second quarter of the Federal Speakers,” business resource Kobayashi's letter agreed in its own weekly outlook.

Bitcoin long-term owners will be active sellers

As Bitcoin sets new records on the charts, long-term holders are biding their time to profit.

What was initially sloppy is now picking up speed, as on-chain data shows – Bitcoin's “diamond hands” are no longer on the sidelines.

In its latest edition of its weekly newsletter, The Week On-Chain, analyst firm Glanode has revealed a new high in guaranteed profits. These refer to coins moving on-chain from two sets of investors: short-term holders (STHs) and long-term holders (LTHs).

STHs are entities that hold coins for less than 155 days, and reflect the more speculative end of the Bitcoin investor spectrum. LTHs, on the other hand, are willing to hold BTC with more guilt.

Last month, when BTC/USD reached the highest level of 73,700 dollars, there was an increase in profit making, which reached 2.6 billion dollars per day. Glassnode showed that 40% of this came from LTHs.

The situation has since changed, with overall profitability declining significantly, but LTHs still represent significant realized profits.

As of March 31, these totaled more than $1 billion, with LTHs accounting for nearly half of that figure.

“From here, analysts can view LTHs as an increasingly important group as they assess the magnitude of sell-side supply pressure moving forward,” Glassnode wrote in the newsletter.

BTC price is “the same” until December 2020

Glassnode has revealed what it calls “striking similarities” between the current BTC price action and the previous bull market in 2021.

Overlaying this year's performance with previous cycles shows the 2011-2013 cycle as a clear outlier.

This also contradicts the theory that institutional demand has fueled a new BTC price rally this year.

“If we trace the price performance (black) from April 2021 (where we argue bear market sentiment is set), we see a striking similarity to the previous cycle (blue), “The Week On-Chain” explained about a cycle. Comparison table.

“In both duration and distance from the April 2021 peak, the market is in a similar position to December 2020 relative to the 2018-21 cycle.”

December 2020 marked the launch pad period for Bitcoin, which broke from its previous highs and entered the price recovery after its first attempt in almost two weeks.

As Cointelegraph reports, however, this year marks its first all-time high before block subsidies are halved.

Gold, stocks prepare for crypto “bullish divergence”

Crypto market sentiment is anticipating a shot at price discovery in markets, data shows.

Related: Bitcoin Exchanges' BTC Balances Fall To $10B By 2024

Recent readings from the Crypto Fear and Greed Index indicate a return to “Extreme Greed,” a familiar sentiment among Bitcoin and altcoin market participants.

This is independent of observed inflation, suggesting that traders may be irrational if a bull market emerges.

Fear and greed continue above levels seen in 2021 all-time highs, but will increase before entering levels similar to cross-market price corrections.

Analyzing the impetus for investor optimism last week, the research firm argued that sentiment could be part of broader confidence in risk assets.

“Crypto traders normally hope that Bitcoin and other assets will shape their own market performance without relying on stocks or other sectors,” he wrote on X.

“But for a change, the public has pointed out that the strong #AllTimeHigh levels from the #SP500 and gold are creating a huge gap for $BTC and altcoins to attract profit spreads from these other sectors.”

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and business activity involves risk, and readers should do their own research when making a decision.