Trump and Harris Odds in Nevada Flip Flop As Election Day Data Breaks Market Prediction Markets

Kamala Harris briefly took the lead in blockchain-based prediction markets on Nevada's presidential election results on Tuesday, as traders reported new data on voter turnout in the swing state's most populous district.

The Democratic presidential candidate had collected 55% of the betting volume on crypto-based prediction market Polymarket as of 11:50 a.m., according to the data. The odds briefly swung in Harris' favor on Tuesday, with Republican and Democrat voter turnout tied in Clark County, Nevada, on Election Day polling data.

Trump later took a slight lead over his political rival, who at the time of writing held a 56% betting rate.

On Kalshi, another prediction markets platform, Harris briefly took the lead in Nevada around 10am PST, jumping to a 52.5% chance of winning. However, Trump again took over with 53% to Harris with 47%.

Data released by Twitter (aka X) shows that registered Democrats hold 31.5% of voters in local elections, compared to 29.9% of registered Republicans, as of 9am PST. Meanwhile, other voters flocked to the polls in Clark County at 38.5%.

The latest data as of 11:10 a.m. showed Democrats still on top at roughly 31.5% of the Election Day vote in the county. Republicans held a commanding lead in the county in 2022, with early 2024 data suggesting the GOP would again carry Clark.

Clark County is the most populous of Nevada's counties, with 2.3 million residents and 70 percent of the state's population. As such, the county has the most control over who wins Nevada's six electoral votes.

The winner of the US presidential election must collect 270 electoral votes. The Associated Press, which it calls America's Choice, has not yet released voter turnout data in Nevada. Polls in the state close at 7pm PST, according to the AP.

For months, members of the public have been monitoring the movement of prediction markets to predict who will win the 2024 US presidential election. Proponents of prediction markets argue that they are more accurate measures of the outcome of future events than traditional polls, while detractors argue that the markets suffer from a conservative bias.

Edited by Andrew Hayward.