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News of Donald Trump's guilty verdicts in a New York court dominated international headlines on Thursday, but for those who gambled on the outcome of the US presidential election in November, nothing fundamentally changed.
More than $142 million is riding on “Presidential Election Winner 2024,” the largest political bet on crypto-betting site Polymarket—especially since it's not publicly available to US residents. For more than a week, Trump's odds of winning have held steady at about 56%, mirroring many major political polls.
After the verdict was announced, live odds ran between 53% and 55%, available as of this writing.
There were many different betting markets available for testing on the Polymarket site. Before the jury returned a guilty verdict for the former president, users collectively saw a 77 percent chance of guilt. Only $204,000 is riding on this particular bet, but it remains open to debate for another hour as of this writing.
That's more than four times the $800,000 — riding on whether Trump will end up in jail before Election Day — and those odds have increased slightly since the verdict. After the news broke last Thursday from a stable 14% chance to 20%, the odds are currently at 17%.
The collective outcry on Polymarket contrasted somewhat with the response on Crypto Twitter, where some declared Trump's verdict nothing more than a call for revolution.
“Buy a gun. Buy bitcoin. Go to a red state,” urges Ryan Selkis, founder and CEO of the crypto research outfit. “The US Constitution has failed.”
“Donald Trump is building a crypto army,” Messari, currently tweeting, continued: “If you care about crypto and the Republic, donate crypto to the Trump campaign.”
Adam Cochran, a partner at CinemaHine Ventures, tweeted that the verdict would confirm that Trump is “a criminal who tells you he's anti-establishment out to beat you up.”
As for the ruling's impact on political meme coinage, pro-Trump signs have been in the news. That was puzzling to some, as many believed the conviction would only help Trump's chances.
When the dust settles, that may be the conventional wisdom: the $TRUMP token has rebounded in the past hour, and the short gains seen for $BODEN have evaporated.
Edited by Ryan Ozawa.
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